[海伦]2024 年是降息支点之年——世界各国央行将在此时做出让步

时间：2024-03-13|浏览：297

欧元、美元、加元、俄罗斯卢布和捷克克朗作为纸币放在桌子上。

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随着大多数经济体的通胀放松，投资者正在密切关注利率决策，市场预计今年将出现一系列降息。

经济学人智库在最近的一份报告中表示，虽然大多数经济体的利率在 2024 年仍将保持在高位，但经济学家预计今年晚些时候利率将出现温和回落。

大多数央行从 2022 年初开始大幅上调政策利率，以抑制通胀。

这家全球情报公司表示，中国和日本仍然是全球紧缩周期中的例外，尽管北京的利率已开始小幅放松。

EIU还预计日本央行将在第二季度退出负利率政策。

美国

美联储主席鲍威尔上周重申，如果通胀信号配合，他预计今年利率将开始下降，但没有给出具体时间表。

根据美联储首选指标评估的通胀率目前为年率2.4%，仍领先于美联储2%的目标。

美联储在 1 月份会议上将利率稳定在 5.25% 至 5.5% 的范围内。

目前市场预计美联储将在 6 月份开始降息 25 个基点。

欧元区

欧洲央行上周也将政策利率维持在4%的历史高位，暗示6月份之前不会降息。

央行承认通胀放缓速度快于预期，并将年度通胀预期从平均 2.7% 下调至 2.3%。

欧洲央行的通胀目标为 2%。

瑞士

瑞士2月份通胀率较上年同期上升1.2%，为近两年半以来的最低水平，引发了人们对瑞士央行可能在3月21日会议上降息的希望。

瑞士央行目前的政策利率为1.75%，央行的通胀目标范围在0%至2%之间。

据 LSEG 称，3 月份降息 25 个基点的可能性超过 40%，这将使瑞士央行的关键利率降至 1.5%。

UBS expects the SNB to wait until the second quarter for its first key interest rate cut, while not ruling out the possibility of a cut this month.

Bank of Canada

In March, the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting. Its governor said that it was too early to consider a cut.

Canada's inflation slowed to 2.9% in January, compared with a year ago. That's a drop from December's 3.4% and within the BOC's target range of 1% to 3%.

Turkey

Turkey's central bank kept its interest rate steady at 45% in February, ending its tightening cycle after eight straight hikes, with many expecting it to hold for most of 2024. The country's inflation currently stands at around 65%.

JPMorgan said in a research note that the Turkish central bank may cut its policy rate in November and December, keeping its year-end policy rate forecast of 45%.

Australia

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates unchanged in February at a 12-year high of 4.35%.

Nomura predicts the RBA will start cutting rates in August as inflation eases and unemployment rises. The firm said it expects the country to "narrowly avoid a recession."

In a recent note, ANZ noted that Australia's economy experienced a "continued slowdown" in the second half of 2023 as fourth-quarter GDP grew just 0.2% from the prior quarter. That comes after third-quarter GDP edged 0.3% higher from the previous three-month period.

New Zealand

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the official cash rate steady at 5.5% in its February meeting, forecasting that inflation will re-enter the 1% to 3% per year target band by September.

Auckland Savings Bank does not expect the RBNZ to start cutting the cash rate until November.

Indonesia

Indonesia's central bank kept its benchmark policy rate at 6% in its recent meeting.

While the Southeast Asian nation's consumer price inflation is now within the Bank Indonesia's targeted range of 1.5% to 3.5% for the year, Indonesia's central bank governor is considering a 75 basis point cut only in the second semester of the year.

"We are still watching closely is about the global spillover... mainly of the impact of U.S. monetary policy direction," Bank Indonesia governor Perry Warjiyo recently told CNBC's JP Ong.

BMI, a Fitch Solutions research unit, expects the bank to lower the benchmarkrate to 5% by the end of 2024, starting in the second half of the year in tandem with the U.S. and other developed market central banks "in order to not raise undue depreciatory pressures on the Indonesian rupiah."

Bank of Japan

Unlike its peers, economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates this year instead of cutting.

The BOJ is expected to move toward ending its negative interest rate policy by April, contingent on annual wage negotiations, said economists at Oxford Economics and Macquarie.

春季工资谈判是日本通胀能否持续实现日本央行2%目标的重要因素，而这是日本央行结束负利率政策的先决条件。