[玛丽]美联储维持利率稳定，表明尚未准备好开始降息

华盛顿——美联储周三发出了不温不火的信号，表示已完成加息，但明确表示尚未准备好开始降息。

在本周结束的美联储为期两天的会议上，联邦公开市场委员会发表了一份经过重大修改的声明，删除了表示愿意继续加息直至通胀得到控制并朝着美联储第二次降息目标迈进的措辞。 %通胀目标。

不过，该行还表示，由于通胀仍高于央行目标，目前尚无降息计划。

该声明进一步提供了有关加息的有限指导，仅概述了将进入政策“调整”的因素。

声明称：“委员会预计，在对通胀持续向 2% 迈进更有信心之前，不宜降低目标范围。”

虽然声明确实浓缩了政策制定者在评估政策时会考虑的因素，但并未明确排除更多加息的可能性。

一个显着的变化是取消了货币政策的滞后效应作为考虑因素。

官员们普遍认为调整至少需要 12 至 18 个月才能生效。

"In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks," the statement said. That language replaced a bevy of factors including "the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments."Those changes were part of an overhaul in which the Fed seeks to chart a course ahead as inflation data points move lower while economic growth has been resilient.The statement indicated that economic growth has been "solid" and noted the progress made on inflation."The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance," the FOMC missive said. "The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks."Gone from the statement was a key clause that had referenced "the extent of any additional policy firming" that might come. Some Fed watchers had been looking for language to emphasize that additional rate hikes were unlikely, but the statement left the question at least somewhat open.Going into the meeting, markets had expected the Fed could begin reducing its benchmark overnight borrowing rate as soon as March, with May also a possible launching point.Policymakers, though, have been more circumspect about their intentions, cautioning that they see no need to move quickly as they watch the data unfold. Committee members in December indicated a likelihood of three quarter-percentage point rate cuts this year, less ambitious than the six that futures markets are pricing, according to the CME Group.More immediately, the committee, for the fourth consecutive time, unanimously voted not to raise the fed funds rate. The key rate is targeted in a range between 5.25%-5.5%, the highest in nearly 23 years.Markets are awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell's news conference at 2:30 p.m. ET for more clues on monetary policy.The Fed has been riding a wave of decelerating inflation, a strong labor market and solid economic growth, giving it both leeway to start easing up on monetary policy and caution about growth that could reaccelerate and drive prices higher again. Along with 11 rate hikes, the Fed also has been allowing its bond holdings to roll off, a process that has shaved more than $1.2 trillion off the central bank balance sheet.The statement indicated that the balance sheet runoff will continue apace.Many economists now are adopting a soft-landing narrative where the Fed can bring inflation down without torpedoing economic growth.Separate reports Wednesday indicated that the labor market is softening, but so are wages.

薪资处理公司 ADP 报告称，1 月份私营企业仅新增 107,000 名员工，这一数字低于市场预期，但仍表明劳动力市场正在扩张。

此外，劳工部报告称，就业成本指数（美联储密切关注工资带来的通胀信号的一项指标）第四季度仅增长 0.9%，是 2021 年第二季度以来的最小增幅

。通过核心个人消费支出衡量的价格在 12 月份上涨了 2.9%，为 2021 年 3 月以来的最低水平。在六个月和三个月的基础上，核心个人消费支出价格均达到或低于美联储的目标。

在另一件事中，美联储还宣布将改变高级官员和员工的投资政策。

这些变化扩大了覆盖范围，包括任何有权访问“联邦公开市场委员会机密信息”的人，并表示一些工作人员可能需要提交经纪报表或其他文件，以核实披露的准确性。

这些变化是在美联储在新冠疫情大流行初期对政策进行重大调整之际，多名美联储官员使用私人账户进行交易引发争议的。

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