他已经赢了 70 万美元，但特朗普的赌注却很糟糕——Polymarket 上瘾者的自白

时间：2024-06-23|浏览：328

作为 Polymarket 最活跃的赌徒，多默在过去三年中通过预测众多赛事的结果赢得了近 70 万美元。

他正确猜测 Sam Bankman-Fried 将被判处 25 年监禁，因此获得了 50,000 美元。

多默又赢了 5 万美元，赌萨姆·奥特曼将被解雇 OpenAI 首席执行官职务。

不过，和其他赌徒一样，他也承担了自己的损失。

今年早些时候，他因押注美国监管机构不会批准以太坊 ETF 而损失了 12 万美元。5 月份，以太坊 ETF 终于获得了批准。而他预计 7 月份的损失几乎肯定会达到 26 万美元。

即使如此，他还是不能放弃。

“我就是喜欢交易，”多默尔说，他喜欢使用化名。“我可能每天只睡四五个小时。”

多元化市场繁荣

他并不是唯一一个。随着美国总统大选升温，加密货币成为意外热门话题，Polymarket 正在蓬勃发展。

Dune Analytics 的数据显示，每月有超过 20,000 名交易员在该点对点赌博平台上投入 5600 万美元，是 12 个月前该平台交易量的八倍。

多默 (Domer) 的 Polymarket 头像是瑞恩·高斯林 (Ryan Gosling) 扮演的芭比娃娃肯 (Ken)，他已经下注了——他赌 44,000 美元赌总统乔·拜登 (Joe Biden) 不会退出总统竞选，这是一个相当安全的赌注。

他已经赢了70万美元但特朗普的赌注却很糟糕POLYMARKET上瘾者的自白

他还押注 8,700 美元，押共和党提名候选人唐纳德·特朗普将赢得普选。2020 年，拜登比特朗普多赢了 700 多万张选票。（多默说他会投票给拜登。）

这只是选举活动的一小部分。

Polymarket 有 129 个与比赛相关的市场。有些赌注相当晦涩难懂：埃隆·马斯克本周会发多少条推文？谁将成为下一位饰演詹姆斯·邦德的演员？

甚至还有一个小小的 2,000 美元的赌注池，赌拜登在 6 月 27 日的辩论中是否会说“胡说八道”这个词。多默尔有 16 美元的赌注，赌他会说。

押注有效市场

从很多方面来看，这都是 Polymarket 的黄金时刻。该网站于 2020 年上线，集体育博彩和预测分析于一体。

Polymarket 首席执行官兼创始人 Shayne Coplan 将该平台设计为世界上最大的加密货币预测市场。所有赌注都以 USDC（Circle 的美元挂钩稳定币）进行，加密货币爱好者纷纷涌向该网站。

Polymarket 并不依赖软件程序进行预测，而是利用赌徒对行动的无限兴趣。

你知道泰勒·斯威夫特的最新专辑将在排行榜上停留几周吗？中国今年会入侵台湾吗？今年夏天谁将夺得美洲杯足球赛的冠军？

您可以通过购买特定结果的股份来押注这些查询。当您和其他投注者这样做时，即使您不再下注，您的赌注价值也会上升，或者下降，视情况而定。

Shares cost pennies. If you’re wrong, those pennies collapse to zero cents. If you’re right, the shares rise to a dollar.

‘I’ve let go of being too attached to wins or losses.’

Domer

The model essentially relies on the efficiency of the marketplace to make guesses about an outcome possible. In that sense, Polymarket reflects many of the same dynamics at play in the capital markets — stocks go up and down, after all, based on investors’ assumptions.

So, too, do the shares in the many betting pools on Polymarket. “It’s probably the best approximation versus listening to so-called experts or pundits, or getting your news in a very biased fashion,” Domer said.

Thanks to its Discord channel, which lets users make suggestions for new markets in real time, Polymarket rapidly captures the zeitgeist and turns it into a bet.

Trump coin, or not?

On Monday, for example, debate erupted over whether Donald Trump actually created another Trump-inspired meme coin called DJT.

Today, there are a dozen different bets on Polymarket centred on the token.

The largest market, at $3.4 million, asks simply whether the token is real. Another $1.2 million bets on whether Trump’s son, Barron Trump, launched DJT.

Punters are even speculating on whether Martin Shkreli, the convicted fraudster and onetime hedge fund manager, will go back to prison this year. Shkreli, who has more than 190,000 followers on X, has been arguing that DJT has ties to the Trump team.

An insider with direct knowledge of decisions surrounding the Trump campaign told DL News on Wednesday that the campaign wasn’t involved in the project.

Onchain sleuth ZachXBT was also awarded $150,000 by analytics firm Arkham for correctly identifying the token’s creator as Shkreli himself.

DJT action

Of course, Domer has a hand in the DJT action.

Besides betting Shkreli $70,000 on X that Trump has nothing to do with the token, he’s also bet $3,200 that Shkreli won’t see any jail time despite the antics.

The DJT market is just one of 128,000 that Domer follows.

That’s another quirk of Polymarket. You can see everything anyone’s gambling on, including how much they’ve won or lost. There are even profit rankings across a day, a week, a month, and since the first bet a trader made.

On Friday, for instance, Domer has already made nearly $12,000.

Domer epitomises Polymarket’s rise as the go-to betting platform for crypto enthusiasts.

Domer, who’s based in Las Vegas, used to be a professional poker player. In 2007, he started dabbling in Intrade, one of the first prediction markets that eventually shut down in 2013, as well as PredictIt.

Now, he spends 100 hours a week on Polymarket. His bets are mostly political, but he’s also betting $23,700 that weed won’t be rescheduled in the US, another $15,800 that a cat meme coin will reach unicorn status, and $6,300 that Google’s CEO Sundar Pichai won’t be fired or step down this year.

Next month’s different, though. It’s his biggest bet yet.

他与化名交易员 Gigantic Rebirth 打赌，押注 26 万美元，赌特朗普不会赢得共和党总统候选人提名。特朗普已经是共和党的推定候选人，并将于 7 月在密尔沃基举行的共和党全国大会上正式成为共和党总统候选人。

开始了。我押注了 2024 年的一大笔钱：我押 26 万美元，GCR 押 20 万美元，赌特朗普是否是共和党总统候选人。

我已掌握了主动权；GCR 押注特朗普。

— Domer (@Domahhhh) 2022 年 6 月 15 日

多默表示，他将通过押注特朗普竞选搭档的各候选人来收回大部分损失。例如，他购买了价值 12,600 美元的佛罗里达州参议员马可·卢比奥赢得提名的股票。随着卢比奥的前景好转，这笔赌注的价值飙升了 164%。

同样，他还押注俄亥俄州参议员 JD Vance 将获得特朗普的提名，而这一赌注的价值已上涨 83%。如果卢比奥击败 Vance 赢得副总统提名，这将在很大程度上证明 Polymarket 可预测系统的有效性。

渴望行动

至少，Polymarket 的设计将简单的问题转变为庞大而动态的市场。

这使得像多默这样渴望行动的投机者可以在市场收盘前交易新闻。

尽管如此，他仍然保持着客观的态度。他显然很高兴能参加比赛。

他说：“我可能会因为这个愚蠢的事情损失 15,000 美元，但也许两天后，我就会因为另一件愚蠢的事情赚到 16,000 美元。”