双头牛预测及热点事件-2023

It is generally predicted that the double-headed bull will peak in June / peak in September. Generally speaking, their consistent predictions are wrong, including but not limited to:

The decline first and then rise in 2019 (the second half of the year is closer to the halving cycle), but it actually rose first and then fell

The consistent halving market at the beginning of 2020, in fact, 312

The script of the bull market in 2021, actually ended in May, and the CME futures rat warehouse in the second half of the year drove the artificial double-headed bull

The callback in 2022 will not be as deep as the past bear market, but it is actually the same -87%, and the 2019 replica in 2023, but there is no second bottoming in the second half of the year, and it has risen throughout the year and only fell for 3 months

So, don't believe the script of most people and treat it as a counter-pointer.

New leeks increment

Exchanges generally report that the increment of new users is not much, mainly old accounts are activated. However, this number began to appear after 30,000-40,000 (+50%-100% after ATH) in the last round.

Optimistic, leeks have not yet entered the market, and the bull market is in the middle. Pessimistically, 69k*1.5=103.5k is a difficult psychological barrier.

Hotspot

- Asian VCs speculate on BTC, and rumors spread that various head projects are blocked

- European and American VCs speculate on parallel EVM/Restaking/LRT

- All VCs are interested in AI/DePIN

- Retail investors speculate on MEME

- TON Zhuangbi uses it to convince people (control degree 90%+)

At present, the short-term market has successfully broken through the triangle as expected and then fell back into the triangle. The technical rules issued before, including the prediction of the macro, have taken effect. At the beginning of April, three trends were investigated. Everyone thought that the main falling wave would go to 5w or the main rising wave would go to 8,9w. On the contrary, few people considered the wide range of fluctuations like now.

The continued volatile market is estimated to wait for new macro events to break this volatile situation again. Since the big cake did not start the main wave directly, the cottage season does not need to be considered for the time being, and the trend of the cottage market share has also been reflected. qun蟋蟀:1742540051 It is difficult to have a general rise, but it is possible that one or two sectors will strengthen occasionally. In a word, continue to be patient.

At the macro level, the United States is also fighting fiercely. Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley and asset management giant Pioneer all believe that there will be no interest rate cuts this year. Goldman Sachs and Citigroup believe that there will still be three interest rate cuts. American Express has also begun to lower user wealth management interest rates in preparation for the interest rate cut. It should take two consecutive months of non-agricultural, CPI, PPI, crude oil trend and other data to have a clear macro trend.

Possible events that may change the situation in the future include the official hype of Ethereum ETF and the clarification of the time for the Fed to cut interest rates. That is when the market will be smooth. #大盘走势 #WIF #SHIB #sui #Meme

热点：事件 预测