时间:2024-04-09|浏览:302
尽管高利率和相对强势的美元对金价不利,但在美国经济数据强劲和地缘政治紧张局势加剧的背景下,金价周一延续强劲涨势,盘中再创历史新高。
在一些华尔街分析师看来,金价的强势预计将至少持续到今年下半年。花旗此前将黄金描述为发达市场的“衰退对冲工具”。也有人认为,俄乌冲突、加沙战争等地缘政治动荡带来的波动可能为金价提供进一步支撑。
但并非所有人都相信金价将继续上涨。
“我认为有两个因素(推动了当前金价的上涨),”国际资本市场协会(ICMA)高级顾问鲍勃·帕克(Bob Parker)周一接受采访时表示。
他提到的第一个因素是“追赶效应”。帕克表示:“如果你看看去年和今年年初黄金相对于全球股市的表现,就会发现黄金远远落后。” “所以现在追赶效应正在发挥作用。投资者注意到黄金落后了,所以他们正在增加黄金敞口。”
另一个难以获得数据的因素是,一些央行确实在购买黄金,特别是在亚洲,这些央行正在增加黄金在其储备中的比例。
展望未来,帕克表示,黄金的基本面似乎描绘出看跌的景象,包括美元走强、债券收益率上升、人们对美联储降息计划和反通胀进程的担忧日益加剧。
“坦率地说,所有这些因素实际上都表明黄金几乎没有什么上涨空间,我认为它现在很容易遭受挫折,”帕克说。
市场参与者一直在密切关注美联储官员有关今年可能降息次数的评论。如果3月份通胀仍然居高不下且就业增长继续超出预期,那么美联储今年降息的可能性可能会降低。
白银会超越黄金吗?
法国巴黎财富管理公司首席投资官Edmund Shing周一在接受采访时表示:“一段时间以来,我们一直非常看好贵金属,但即使是我们也对黄金的强势感到有些困惑。”
他进一步指出,“黄金的有趣之处在于,我认为从中期来看,黄金价格已经完全脱离了与实际利率和美元的传统相关性,这是非常令人鼓舞的。”
Shing said gold appears to have received some boost as investors "look to the longer term future" and focus on issues such as U.S. debt sustainability. Like Parker, Shing also highlighted the role that central bank demand has played in boosting gold prices. "Let's not forget that central banks around the world, certainly in China, India and emerging markets in particular, have been steadily accumulating gold," he said.
He added, “What’s probably more exciting right now is the reaction we’re seeing in other precious metals, especially silver which is finally starting to catch up. But it’s still well below its all-time high of $50 an ounce set in 2011.”
Gold and silver prices have traditionally shown a strong positive correlation, although silver is sometimes described as gold's "poor relative." Many analysts believe that silver is expected to outperform gold in the second half of this year.
Related reading: The bottom of gold prices is gradually rising! Silver bulls may be ready to explode
Related reading: After missing out on the gold rally, speculators are flocking to silver, betting on latecomers to come out on top!
Related reading: Don’t just focus on gold! Silver may be next to shine
The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data
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