加密货币市场情绪研究报告（2024.03.29-04.05）：非农数据强劲带动主流货币跌后反弹

非农数据强劲带动主流货币跌后反弹

美国3月新增非农就业人数30.3万人，继续大幅超过预期平均20万人，创去年5月以来最大增幅。数据公布后，比特币小幅下跌，随后反弹至68000美元左右高位。价格在67,000美元处产生较大成交量，短期内在此位置形成支撑位。目前价格位于支撑上方，需要继续观察市场是否有足够的上涨动力。

香港Web3会议进行中，木姐连上比特币平台，预测2030年比特币将涨至150万美元

当被问及比特币的价格将如何发展时，ARK Invest 首席执行官兼首席投资官 Cathie Wood 回应道：

凯茜·伍德：

我被从不同的角度问过这个问题。我们多角度分析的结果是，2030年比特币将涨至150万美元。这个价格预测来自于对机构的调查，利用浮动比率和波动率分析。此前对比特币2030年的价格预测为60万美元，但比特币现货ETF的通过将推动比特币价格在2030年达到150万美元。

如果我去年给你这个数字，它会接近 60 万美元。为什么我们要增加 60 万美元到 150 万美元？因为SEC给主流机构发行现货比特币ETF开了绿灯。如果你根据现代投资组合理论来分配资产，分配给比特币的资产的 5% 会给我们带来 150 万美元的估计数字，因为我们认为投资机构会朝这个方向发展。

距离今天比特币减半还有大约13天（2024.04.05）

减半倒计时：https://www.binance.com/en/events/bitcoin-halving

市场技术和情绪环境分析

情感分析组件

技术指标

价格走势

过去一周，BTC价格下跌-3.24%，ETH价格下跌-6.55%。

上图为近一周BTC价格走势图

上图为近一周ETH价格走势图

该表显示了过去一周的价格变化率。

价量分布图（支撑位和阻力位）

过去一周，BTC和ETH价格在低位形成新的密集交易区域。

上图为近一周BTC集中交易区域分布情况。

上图为近一周ETH密集交易区域分布情况。

该表显示了过去一周BTC和ETH的周密集交易区间。

成交量和持仓量

过去一周，BTC和ETH交易量最大，连续4.2次下跌； BTC 和 ETH 的持仓量均略有下降。

The top of the above picture shows the price trend of BTC, the middle is the trading volume, the bottom is the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K line represents the current state, green means the price rise is supported by trading volume, red is closing positions, yellow is slowly accumulating positions, and black is crowded.

The top of the above picture shows the price trend of ETH, the middle is the trading volume, the bottom is the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K line represents the current state, green means the price rise is supported by trading volume, red is closing positions, yellow is slowly accumulating positions, and black is crowded.

Historical Volatility vs. Implied Volatility

In the past week, the historical volatility of BTC and ETH was the highest at 4.2; the implied volatility of BTC and ETH both decreased compared to the beginning of the week.

The yellow line is the historical volatility, the blue line is the implied volatility, and the red dot is its 7-day average

Event-driven

After the release of non-farm data at 20:30 (Beijing time) on April 5, 2024, Bitcoin fell slightly and then rebounded to a high of around US$68,000. The price generated a large turnover at US$67,000, forming a support level at this position in the short term. The current price is above the support, and we need to continue to observe whether the market has enough upward momentum.

Sentiment Indicators

Momentum Sentiment

In the past week, among Bitcoin/gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/SSE 300, gold was the strongest, while Nasdaq performed the worst.

The above picture shows the trend of different assets in the past week.

Lending Rate_Lending Sentiment

Over the past week, the average annualized return on USD lending was 14.8%, and short-term interest rates rose to around 15%.

The yellow line is the highest price of the USD interest rate, the blue line is 75% of the highest price, and the red line is the 7-day average of 75% of the highest price.

The table shows the average return of USD interest rate for different holding days in the past

Funding Rate_Contract Leverage Sentiment

In the past week, the average annualized return on BTC fees was 22.5%, and contract leverage sentiment rebounded from a low level.

The blue line is the funding rate of BTC on Binance, and the red line is its 7-day average

The table shows the average return of BTC for different holding days in the past

Market Correlation_Consensus Sentiment

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week rose to around 0.85, resulting in relatively consistent market conditions among different varieties.

In the above figure, the blue line is the bitcoin price, and the green line is ['1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'algo', 'ankr', 'ant', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', 'astr', 'atom', 'audio', 'avax', 'axs', 'bal', 'band', 'bat', 'bch', 'bigtime', 'blur', 'bnb', 'btc', 'celo', 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'dgb', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', 'enj', 'ens', 'eos','etc', 'eth', 'fet', 'fil', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', 'hot', 'icp', 'icx', 'imx', 'inj', 'iost', 'iotx', 'jasmy', 'kava', 'klay', 'ksm', 'ldo', 'link', 'loom', 'lpt', 'lqty', 'lrc', 'ltc', 'luna2', 'magic', 'mana', 'matic', 'meme', 'mina', 'mkr', 'near', 'neo', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', 'op', 'pendle', 'qnt', 'qtum', 'rndr', 'rose', 'rune', 'rvn', 'sand', 'sei', 'sfp', 'skl', 'snx', 'sol', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', 'sxp', 'theta', 'tia', 'trx', 't', 'uma', 'uni', 'vet', 'waves', 'wld', 'woo', 'xem', 'xlm', 'xmr', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx'] overall correlation

Market Breadth_Overall Sentiment

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 12.4% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average, 12.4% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 15.5% of the coins were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 7% of the coins were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that the overall market entered a relatively weak stage.

下载['1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'algo', ankr, ant、ape、apt、arb、ar、astr、atom、音频、avax、axs、bal、乐队 '、'bat'、'bch'、'bigtime'、'blur'、'bnb'、'btc'、' zelo'、'cfx'、'chz'、'ckb'、'comp'、'crv'、cvx、cyber、dash、dgb、doge、dot、dydx、egld、enj、ens、eos 等、eth ' , 'fet', '文件', '流', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', '热', 'icp', . icx、imx、inj、iot、iotx、jasmy、kava、klay、ksm、ldo、link、loom、lpt'、'lqty'、'lrc'、'ltc'、'luna 2'、'magic'、'mana '、'matic'、'meme'、'我的'、'mkr'、'附近'、'neo'、海洋、一、ont、op、pendle、qnt、qtum、rndr、玫瑰、符文、rvn、沙子、 '。 sei'、'sfp'、'skl'、'snx'、'sol'、'ssv'、'stg'、'storj'、'stx'、'sui'、'寿司'、'sxp'、'theta' 、 tia、trx、t、uma、uni、vet、waves、wld、woo、xem、xlm、xmr、'xrp'、'xtz'、'yfi'、'zec'、'zen'、'zil'、' zrx'] 30 天前

总结

过去一周的市场中，比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）的价格均出现一定程度的下跌。历史波动率和成交量在连续下跌4.2时最大，持仓量较周初有所减少。 BTC、ETH隐含波动率较周初有所下降。此外，高位资金费率回落，表明合约交易情绪大幅下降。整体市场已进入市场广度指标相对疲软的阶段。事件方面，4月5日非农数据公布后，主流货币价格小幅下跌后反弹。本周，dcBot 的成员也将出现在香港 Web3 会场。如果您有兴趣，可以联系TG进行预约。

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