Are pie prices at a critical turning point? Cancun

Dear friends, Ahan has started working again after a month. Are there any friends who have returned to work?

Today is Monday, February 26, 2024, and the cryptocurrency market has ushered in a new week and the last week of February.

While Bitcoin has remained sideways over the last week, with prices fluctuating between $50,500 and $52,000, Ethereum has significantly outperformed Bitcoin, having breached $3,100 amid sideways Bitcoin prices. .

There are still two weeks to go before the Cancun upgrade, and the market has already reacted in advance. Layer 2 technologies have also seen significant gains over the past period, including some cryptocurrencies in the field of artificial intelligence.

Last week, driven by NVIDIA's better-than-expected financial report, the three major U.S. stock indexes continued to rise, which also drove the rise of AI-related altcoins. This trend is expected to continue, and Nvidia's quarterly financial report this year is believed to continue to drive the market upward.

As for the timing of the Fed's rate cut, I just checked the latest data and expectations for a rate cut in June have picked up. The probability was only 50% before, but now it has risen to 54%.

The president of the New York Fed said on Friday that the economy was moving in the right direction and a rate cut later this year might be appropriate. At present, many large banks have set the expected time for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in June this year. However, stronger-than-expected CPI and PPI data confirmed some signs of a rebound in inflation, destroying expectations for first interest rate cuts in March and May.

Now it could be June at the earliest, and as I just mentioned, the probability is only 54%, which is not particularly high. The hawkish Fed meeting minutes last week also curbed expectations of a rate cut in the short term. Although they were slightly hawkish, they only hinted that there is no rush to cut interest rates. In addition, as one of the indicators to measure inflation, U.S. oil prices fell sharply last week and generally remained within a range without any major abnormalities.

As we enter the new week, I will continue to update on some of the big events on a macro level, as well as some token unlocks.

Before that, though, let’s take a look at the Bitcoin futures market. The last wave of Bitcoin’s rally from $50,500 to $51,500 caused some short liquidation. We see many long positions being established below, and the concentrated area of ​​these long positions, or the area where stop loss orders are concentrated, is around $50,500.

In fact, Bitcoin has tested support levels multiple times over the past period. As the last support point at $50,000, if $50,500 is broken down, it is likely to further test $50,000 or even fall back below $50,000. However, the current price of Bitcoin remains quite stable, no one in the futures market is eager to short, and the short liquidation wall above is not obvious. Bitcoin's two-week sideways state has left the futures market lacking a clear sense of direction and uncertainty about how long this trend will last.

However, the focus seems to have shifted to Ethereum and a few other altcoins.

I still remember that I mentioned before that it would be difficult for Bitcoin to fall below $40,000 again, or even $42,500. One of the reasons is that indicators on the URPD chain show that $42,500 is one of the highest points for buying Bitcoin, with many people buying Bitcoin here for prices higher than $3,500 and $16,500, and the price has risen recently to $51,500. I have always emphasized that this price point has been playing the role of support and resistance and is one of the important price reference points recently.

Bitcoin price is currently within a critical range, sandwiched between two important supply areas.

First, the supply area as support is located between $50,000 and $51,570, with approximately 1.3 million addresses holding 670,000 Bitcoins, providing some support for the price; secondly, the supply area as resistance is located between $51,640 and $51,640. Between $53,200, there are 752,600 addresses holding 350,000 Bitcoins. Holders in this area may choose to sell when the price rises, forming price resistance. If it can break out of this resistance area, Bitcoin may continue its rise to challenge $57,000.

There is still a positive trend in terms of inflows, especially when it comes to Bitcoin price. From October last year to the present, we can see that the transfer value of stablecoins has remained at a high level, and the increased transfer value of stablecoins indicates an increased willingness for funds to flow into the market.

Next let’s take a look at the token unlocking situation. The number of tokens unlocked this week is quite impressive.

Tokens such as DYDX, OP and PRIME will be unlocked in large amounts at one time, with a total released value of approximately US$334 million. Among them, Nym (NYM) will unlock 25 million tokens at 8:00 on February 27, worth approximately US$5.36 million, accounting for 3.63% of the circulating supply; Yield Guild Games (YGG) will unlock at 10:00 on February 27 00 will unlock 16.69 million tokens, worth approximately US$8.95 million, accounting for 5.57% of the circulating supply; SingularityNET (AGIX) will unlock 8.97 million tokens at 8:00 on February 28, valued at approximately US$6.56 million, accounting for 5.57% of the circulating supply. 0.71% of the supply; Echelon Prime (PRIME) will unlock 1.66 million tokens at 8:00 on February 29, worth approximately US$20.97 million, accounting for 4.89% of the circulating supply; Sui (SUI) will unlock on February 29 4 million tokens will be unlocked at 8:00 on the day, worth approximately US$6.56 million, accounting for 0.34% of the circulating supply; Optimism (OP) will unlock 24.16 million tokens at 12:00 on February 29, worth approximately US$88.66 million , accounting for 2.52% of the circulating supply; Manta Network (MANTA) will unlock 1.87 million tokens at 7:59 on March 1, worth approximately US$5.58 million, accounting for 0.74% of the circulating supply; DYDX (dYdX) will unlock At 8:00 on March 1, 33.33 million tokens will be unlocked, worth approximately US$117 million, accounting for 11.09% of the circulating supply; ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock 5.29 million tokens at 8:00 on March 1, worth approximately 12.33 million US dollars, accounting for 2.24% of the circulating supply.

For those who are interested in altcoins, you may want to pay attention to these unlocking situations. Normally, token unlocking is detrimental to the price because more supply flowing into the market will pose some resistance to price increases, but this is not an absolute event and is for reference only. If you are a long-term friend, you can decide whether to pay attention to these unlocking information based on your own knowledge. #BTC #ETH

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