MT Capital Insight：Chainflip——原生跨链交易市场的后起之秀

塞维林

长话短说

• Chainflip 实现了原生跨链价值转移，具有更高程度的去中心化、安全性和可组合性。

• $FLIP 代币在短期内可能会保持通货膨胀，因为我们预计交易量的回购和销毁不足以使 $FLIP 在此时间范围内出现通货紧缩。

• 与Thorchain相比，Chainflip提供了更好的产品体验和设计，但Thorchain的先发优势、品牌知名度和市场份额也是重要的竞争优势。

  因此，我们预测 Chainflip 在短期内很难完全取代 Thorchain。

• Chainflip 的市值约为 9000 万美元，完全稀释后的市值为 4.6 亿美元。

  Thorchain 的市值为 $2.1B，完全稀释后的市值为 $3B。

  从可比估值的角度来看，$FLIP 仍有接近 8 倍的可想象上涨空间。

  然而，Thorchain 的市值由 $68B 的总交易量和近期日均交易量超过 $100M 的支撑，而 Chainflip 尚未产生任何交易。

• 总体而言，我们对 $FLIP 的走势保持谨慎乐观，并将密切关注 Chainflip 主网上线激励措施能否带动交易量大幅增长。

Chainflip——去中心化跨链流动性网络

原生跨链价值转移

与使用包装资产或需要在此过程中铸造/销毁资产的跨链解决方案不同，Chainflip 选择启用原生跨链价值转移。

这意味着Chainflip支持的每条链上都有一个原生的流动性池，形成跨链结算层，满足用户跨链转移资产的需求。

原生跨链价值转移的优点是：

• 价值转移与链和钱包无关。

  Chainflip支持用户使用普通钱包在任意链上进行价值转移。

• 价值转移不涉及包装资产、合成资产或其他辅助资产。

  用户只需提交常规交易即可进行兑换，兑换完成后不会面临任何其他资产风险。

• Chainflip 不需要在特定链上额外部署或执行其他协议。

  它具有更高的兼容性和通用性，旨在将尽可能多的计算放在链下以减少用户的Gas消耗。

• Chainflip原生的跨链价值转移可以降低用户的门槛，减少风险暴露，提供更好的用户体验。

来源：

去中心化

Compared to other solutions, another major advantage of Chainflip is its higher degree of decentralization. Chainflip’s validation network consists of up to 150 validator nodes. The validators maintain network security, participate in consensus, monitor external chain events, and collectively control the funds in system. Becoming a validator does not require any permission. Users only need to stake enough $FLIP and win the auction with the highest bid. The core idea behind Chainflip is to use MPC (multi-party computation), specifically TSS (threshold signature scheme), to create an aggregate key held by the permissionless network of 150 validators. All operations and state changes in Chainflip require consent from over 2/3 of the nodes to ensure higher security. Compared to the cross-chain value exchange of centralized exchanges and partially centralized cross-chain bridges, users do not need to worry about centralized exchange misconduct risks or cross-chain bridge centralized server misconduct risks.By achieving a higher degree of decentralization, Chainflip avoids single points of failure and misconduct risks from individual nodes, thereby significantly improving overall system security.

source：https://docs.chainflip.io

JIT AMM

The cross-chain value transfer calculations are performed by the Just In Time AMM (JIT AMM) on Chainflip’s substrate-based state chain. JIT AMM is built on Uni V3, with the difference being that JIT AMM is not a set of smart contracts across different chains, but rather performs virtual computations solely on the state chain for value transfers.Chainflip’s ledger and computation functions are stripped away to the state chain, while settlement relies on vaults set up by Chainflip across chains.This workflow greatly reduces the complexity of performing cross-chain value exchange calculations, ledgering, and settlement across chains, effectively lowering gas costs for users. Moreover, Chainflip’s state chain can also support more customization needs of JIT AMM. For example, Chainflip allows LPs to place timely, dynamic limit orders in response to incoming orders, preventing MEV bots from front running via LP competition, improving capital efficiency for LPs, and allowing users to get better market prices at lower slippage.

source：https://docs.chainflip.io

Composability

Compared to existing cross-chain bridges, Chainflip also has better composability. Developers can easily integrate Chainflip’s native cross-chain value transfer functionality into existing protocols or products using the Chainflip SDK. Just as Uniswap’s Swap feature is widely integrated into DeFi use cases, higher composability will bring more use cases to Chainflip. With the current explosion of high composability use cases represented by fully on-chain games, as application Lego blocks continue to stack, it will inevitably stimulate demand for underlying cross-chain asset liquidity. However, the current situation is increasingly severe liquidity fragmentation between L1s and L2s. Native cross-chain solutions like Chainflip may become an essential embedded feature for multi-chain projects.

Team Background

Chainflip’s team consists of 26 experienced global talents. Simon Harman is Chainflip’s founder and CEO, and also a board member of the Oxen Foundation. Prior to Chainflip, Simon led teams building products including Session, a messenger app based on the Signal protocol. CTO Martin was previously a founder of Covariant Labs and CTO & CSO of Finoa. The Chainflip team has extensive crypto background experience, with nearly 60% as developers, forming a high-quality overall team composition.

Tokenomics

On November 23, 2022, Chainflip announced its mainnet launch and issuance of the $FLIP token. $FLIP was quickly embraced by the market, with the current price around $5, representing nearly a 2.7x increase over the $1.83 ICO price.

$FLIP is the native ERC-20 token of Chainflip, with an initial supply of 90M following a dynamic token supply model. Currently, Chainflip expects 8% annual token inflation to incentivize validators. Additionally, Chainflip’s trading fees will be used to buyback and burn $FLIP, making $FLIP potentially deflationary. $FLIP is mainly empowered by being used for staking validation and capturing protocol value.

source：https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/chainflip/

$FLIP Staking for Validation

Similar to most validation networks, since the 150 Chainflip nodes will control all system funds and operations, nodes must stake enough $FLIP as slashing penalty collateral before participating in validation to prevent misconduct. Nodes staking more $FLIP have a higher chance of becoming authoritative validator nodes and earning additional validation rewards. It is currently expected that 7% annual token rewards will be evenly distributed among authoritative validator nodes. Regular backup validator nodes will also receive 1% annual token rewards proportional to their staked $FLIP. Therefore, it is clear that$FLIP staking quantities can significantly impact validation rewards for validators, which amplifies nodes demand to hold and stake $FLIP tokens. Chainflip also expects $FLIP staking rates to account for 37–66% of total supply, as substantial token staking helps maintain token price stability and reduce market selling pressure.

source：https://docs.chainflip.io/concepts/token-economics/incentive-design-emission-and-burning

$FLIP Value Capture

For every token swap made through Chainflip, Chainflip charges a 0.1% fee, collected in USDC, which is used to purchase and burn $FLIP tokens. Similarly, gas fees on the state chain are also used to buyback and burn $FLIP. Chainflip aims to reflect the protocol’s generated value dynamically into $FLIP price through token buyback and burn, rewarding $FLIP holders and enhancing $FLIP’s value capture capabilities.Of course, since $FLIP itself has token inflation, Chainflip needs sufficient daily transaction volume for its buybacks and burns to drive $FLIP price appreciation.

Future Prospects

Potential Market

With the continuous launch of numerous L1s and L2s, the liquidity fragmentation issue across chains is becoming increasingly severe. According to DeFiLlama data, there are currently 71 chains with TVL above $10M. The rise of Rollup-as-a-Service and application chains will further exacerbate liquidity fragmentation. Traditional cross-chain bridges, which suffer frequent hacking incidents, are no longer users’ first choice for addressing cross-chain liquidity needs. Native cross-chain token swap solutions represented by Thorchain and Chainflip may become mainstream.The total value locked across current cross-chain bridges is around $12B, while Thorchain’s TVL is only about $300M, indicating native cross-chain token swap solutions still have tens of times room for growth.

Comparison with Thorchain

Overall, Chainflip’s market positioning is quite similar to Thorchain, but there are some differences in product experience and design:

1. Product experience: Thorchain requires a specific multi-chain wallet, while Chainflip only needs an ordinary on-chain wallet, making for more convenient user experience. Of course, Thorchain is also working on wallet compatibility to gradually close the experience gap.

2. Decentralization: Thorchain currently has 104 nodes securing its on-chain vaults, while Chainflip’s decentralized validation network consists of 150 nodes. In terms of node count, Chainflip has relatively higher decentralization, but there is no significant gap between them.

source：https://thorchain.net/dashboard&https://scan.chainflip.io/

3. Product design: Thorchain relies on $RUNE as an intermediary asset for both pool formation and swaps, while Chainflip does not depend on any specific token. As a result, Chainflip’s pools and swap process are not exposed to risks associated with a particular token, making it relatively more secure.

In summary,Chainflip currently has slightly better user experience, decentralization, and security compared to Thorchain, but Thorchain’s first-mover advantage, brand awareness and market share are also important competitive strengths. Therefore,we predict it will be difficult for Chainflip to fully displace Thorchain in the short term. It is more likely, as stated in Thorchain’s official tweet, thatChainflip and Thorchain will jointly erode cross-chain bridges’ market share over time.

source：https://twitter.com/THORChain

Currently, ChainFlip has a market cap of about $90M and a fully diluted market cap of $460M. Thorchain has a market cap of $2.1B and a fully diluted market cap of $3B. From a comparable valuation perspective, $FLIP still has close to 8x imaginable upside. However, Thorchain’s market cap is supported by $68B in total transaction volume and recent average daily volume exceeding $100M, while ChainFlip has yet to generate any transactions.Therefore, overall, we remain cautiously optimistic on $FLIP’s trajectory and will pay close attention to whether ChainFlip’s mainnet launch incentives can drive a substantial increase in trading volume.

Reference

1. https://docs.chainflip.io

2. https://medium.com/@TheDeFISaint/chainflips-approach-to-cross-chain-composability-the-jit-amm-revolution-794bb1054ba7

3. https://blog.chainflip.io/just-in-time-jit/

4. https://www.techflowpost.com/article/detail_14648.html

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