[伯特]杰文悖论：它对比特币的实际意义

目录

• 争论

• 无论如何它都会发生

从经济角度来看，杰文悖论可以说是我们开始走上比特币扩容道路的基础。

将事物推离链是试图利用稀缺资源，区块空间比区块链本身能够更有效地容纳更大的用户群。

杰文悖论指出，在存在对某种事物的弹性需求的情况下，当使用该事物的效率提高时，即每次使用的成本降低，参与者对该事物的总需求将会增加。

给出的典型例子是汽车的燃油效率。

如果汽车的汽油使用效率突然提高一倍，人们就会更多地出行，因为出行成本会减少一半。

由于个人成本降低，人们出行更加频繁，燃料需求的净增长可能超过实现效率提升之前的原始燃料总需求。

这就是悖论发生的地方，总需求超过了该东西的使用效率之前的水平。

这就是为什么第二层是可行的解决方案背后的整个经济思维。

在区块大小战争期间，来自大区块者的巨大争论之一是，脱链本质上会从矿工那里窃取资金，并破坏在遥远的未来纯粹靠交易费生存的矿工的博弈论稳定性。

他们在这些辩论中完全忽视的因素是杰文悖论，并且直到今天他们中的许多人仍然完全忽视了这一动态。

争论

相反的论点（至少是有效的）是，效率提高后的需求反弹并不总是超过效率提高之前的总需求。

在许多情况下，它仍然几乎反弹到原来的水平，但并没有超过它。

这归结为最终决定生产某物成本的投入。

以燃料为例，现实情况是燃料成本并不是影响人们驾车出行的唯一因素。

生产汽车的成本，即生产所需的劳动力、材料、能源等，以及汽车本身的最终成本也纳入其中。

这些因素通常会抑制需求的反弹，使其无法超过效率提高之前的水平。

Here’s the thing about Bitcoin though: the cost to produce a block is the only factor of “input costs” in producing blockspace. The real kicker is that no matter what happens to that input cost, the available amount of blockspace stays exactly the same on average. This is the entire novelty and value of the difficulty adjustment in Bitcoin, no matter what the price and net hashrate do, the network circles around this Schelling point of the same average amount of blockspace available. The only way that will change is a consensus change to alter the blocksize, or block interval, or other such core variables that will have an impact on the amount of space available.

Therefore the only real factor to consider when applying Jevon’s Paradox to Bitcoin, is how efficiently can users make use of that existing blockspace. One person owning a UTXO on their own and directly transacting on-chain can be seen as a baseline. Lightning, allowing two people to share a single UTXO and conduct numerous transactions off-chain before settling them on-chain, is the first major efficiency gain. After Lightning, something like Ark or a channel factory would be the next level of efficiency gain. In all of these cases, there are no extraneous factors to consider. If you have Bitcoin, and the ability to use that Bitcoin gets cheaper and cheaper, you are more likely to put that Bitcoin to actual use. There are no extra barriers to Bitcoin other than having the Bitcoin. You don’t HAVE to buy a super expensive hardware device to use it, it might be best security practices to do so if you have a large sum of money, but it is not necessary.

Ordinals and BRC-20 tokens kind of prove this point in my opinion. Shoving jpegs into the blockchain, which are pretty big pieces of data relative to the blocksize limit, is a highly inefficient use of blockspace. BRC-20 tokens, which are simply tiny JSON blobs, are relatively efficient relative to jpegs. Which one of these things really drove the demand for blockspace driving up fees lately? The BRC-20 tokens, not the jpegs.

It’s Going To Happen Anyway

The cold hard reality in my opinion is that blockspace use will get more efficient, and we will see Jevon’s Paradox play out regarding the market for that blockspace, regardless of anything we do. If using blockspace directly becomes prohibitively expensive for users transacting, they will find ways to abstract that away. They don’t need covenants, or forks in general, or anything we are building on layer twos to do so.

Custodians.

All they need is custodians. Using blockspace more efficiently comes down to a single thing: people sharing their UTXOs with each other. The trust model of how they do that, whether they can reclaim their money unilaterally without permission, who they have to interact with to withdraw their money, all of these things are completely and utterly irrelevant to Jevon’s paradox playing out.

如果块空间对人们来说太昂贵，他们就会停止使用它。

对于一类用户来说，即使不是总体需求也会下降。

除非他们想完全停止使用比特币，否则他们将寻求更有效的方式来使用比特币（这本质上需要使用区块空间，无论这种使用有多抽象）。

从长远来看，目前唯一真正可扩展的方式是通过托管人。

这意味着，在没有真正解决“比特币需要以自我托管方式扩展什么”的问题的情况下，我们本质上是在含蓄地承认，该系统如何运作的经济激励本质上迫使人们进入托管平台和机制来使用他们的比特币。

否认这一点就是否认比特币发挥作用的现实：经济和激励。

最近有很多争论认为“垃圾邮件过滤”只是杰文悖论发生的另一种方式。

事实并非如此，而且它与杰文悖论完全没有关系。

阻止特定用例与另一个用例竞争并不会提高另一个用例的效率，它只是试图扭曲和操纵它们争夺相同资源的市场。

该论证未能理解杰文悖论实际上是什么。

它不关心一个用例与另一个用例的比较，或者哪些用途是“合法的”；

它与资源的特定用例完全无关。

它只是说明资源变得更加高效的

用例，并且在没有未计算的投入成本的情况下，效率增益的结果将取决于该特定用例使用该资源的总需求。

如果我们是对的，那么无论我们做什么，事情都会顺利进行。

我们对这一切的唯一影响是区块空间使用中任何效率增益的信任模型是什么，我们无法控制这些效率增益是否会发生。

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