OTC 每周交易洞察 (2024 年 6 月 13 日)

• Highstreet ($HIGH) 的代币价格在过去一周大幅下跌。$HIGH 在 3 月 20 日之后经历了强劲的牛市。不到三个月的时间里，$HIGH 的价格从 1.7 美元上涨至 9.8 美元的高位，随后在短短五天内下跌 70% 至 2.8 美元。Highstreet 开发人员调查了最近的大幅下跌，并得出结论，这是由恶意攻击导致 2000 万个代币被出售造成的。

• Filecoin 网络 ($FIL) 于 2017 年推出，旨在激励全球计算机运营商网络提供文件共享和存储服务。最近关于 DePIN 创新的讨论引起了市场对该项目的兴趣，因为信息存储是 DePIN 创新的关键组成部分。对 $FIL 的高需求导致上周五 5 小时内上涨了 11%。然而，在抛售之后，涨势迅速逆转。

• 由于美国 CPI 通胀低于预期，以及通过拍卖销毁了 600 多万个 INJ 代币，Injective ($INJ) 的价格在过去 24 小时内上涨了 22% 以上。价格的强劲表现引起了广泛关注，我们的交易台上周看到 Convert 上 $INJ 的交易量翻了一番。

整体市场

• 上图显示了过去四个月 BTC 的价格走势。

• 上周五，受美国非农就业人数意外强劲影响，比特币价格大幅下跌。强劲的非农就业人数表明，在如此强劲的劳动力市场下，美联储没有理由降息。高于预期的平均时薪增长给生产端带来更大压力，暗示劳动力成本上升导致通胀粘性加剧。

• BTC 在前一周期高点 69,000 美元处获得支撑。周末，流动性减少，比特币回升至 70,000 美元。

• 本周，我们将发布 CPI 数据，周三还将发布 FOMC 公告。周二，我们的交易台看到了一些风险释放，这导致山寨币出现抛售。BTC 跌破 69,000 美元的支撑位，并在需求出现之前抛售至 66,000 美元。这种规避风险的行为可能是一种对冲策略，以避免周三可能出现的高 CPI 数据和美联储的鹰派立场。

• 美国CPI数据低于预期，导致美元下跌，风险资产上涨。消息公布后，BTC飙升逾2%，早盘突破6.9万美元支撑位。

• 然而，在联邦公开市场委员会新闻发布会之后，英镑兑美元跌至所有涨幅，因为美联储主席鲍威尔并未提供任何有关可能降息的具体信息，并强调美联储最好等待通货紧缩趋势更加明朗，而不是基于单一的良好数据就做出决定。

• Without another catalyst in the near term, our desk believes the Bitcoin price will remain below $71k to $73k (the green bar on the chart). In the longer term, we believe Bitcoin's upward trend will continue, with the price breaking above the green bar and reaching $85k before the US presidential election.

Macro at a glance

• Last Thursday (24-06-06)

  • The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the first time in five years, setting the rate at 3.75%. According to ECB President Christine Lagarde, this rate cut will most likely mark the beginning of rate-cutting progress. She did, however, emphasise that future rate cuts will be contingent on inflationary pressures. The announcement boosted the European stock market.

  • US initial jobless claims increased to 229k from 221k last week, exceeding the estimated 220k. The rise in initial jobless claims suggests that the tightening situation in the US labour market is improving.

• Last Friday (24-06-07)

  • US nonfarm payrolls increased by 272k in May, far exceeding the expected 182k and April's 165k. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month on month. The growth rate exceeded the estimated 0.3% and April's 0.2%. The stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll and faster growth in average hourly earnings indicate a strong US labour market, with inflation pressure remaining high as labour costs continue to rise.

  • However, the US unemployment rate increased to 4.0%, up from 3.9% last month.

  • The strong hourly earnings growth boosted the US dollar index (DXY) to 105, while all risk assets experienced some selloff pressure as the market anticipated a more hawkish Federal Reserve rate cut decision later this year.

• On Wednesday (24-06-12)

  • The US CPI showed signs of softening in May. The monthly CPI was unchanged, lower than the estimated 0.1% and 0.3% in April. The annualised CPI increase is 3.3%, lower than the estimated 3.4% and April's 3.4%. Core CPI also came in lower than expected, with a monthly change of 0.2% and an annualised change of 3.4%. The US dollar fell sharply from 105.03 to 104.5, while Bitcoin rose from $68,005 to $69,500 following the news.

  • The Federal Reserve announced that the interest rate will remain at 5.50%, unchanged. The dot plot indicates that FOMC members expect only one rate cut this year, not three as shown in March. Chair Powell emphasised that the Federal Reserve needs more data to show a downward trend in inflation before lowering rates. The Fed would wait a few months to see if the trend of cooling inflation continues before considering a looser policy.

  • The US dollar recovered its losses following the cooling CPI news, while Bitcoin lost all of its gains and traded below $68,000 before the US market closed.

Convert Portal Volume Change

• The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone.

• 本周，大盘遭遇抛售，比特币未能突破 7.2 万美元大关。我们的转换发现，存储区的交易量增幅最大。

• 上周，我们的团队注意到对 Filecoin（$FIL）的需求很高，这成为存储区交易量变化的主要驱动因素。

• 上周，Launchpad 区域的交易量在 Convert 上增长了 9.7%。Injective ($INJ) 和 Fetch.ai ($FET) 是推动该区域交易量增长的两种代币。

• 同期，Layer 1/Layer 2 区域的交易量下降了 16.8%。继前一周对 ETH 的需求强劲之后，我们的交易台观察到过去七天对 ETH 的需求出现回撤，这是该区域交易量下降的主要原因。

为何进行场外交易？

币安为客户提供多种方式进行场外交易，包括聊天沟通渠道和币安场外交易平台（https://www.binance.com/en/otc），用于手动报价、算法订单或通过币安​​转换和大宗交易平台（https://www.binance.com/en/convert）和币安转换场外交易 API 进行自动报价。

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