美国非农数据的逻辑错误

对美国非农数据的质疑：市场热议背后的荒谬与逻辑错误

似乎一夜之间所有财经媒体都开始关注美国非农数据。你不觉得这很有趣吗？每个股票投资者都变成了经济学家。于是，又是同样的节奏。我们大楼里的保安和清洁女工已经开始讨论美国非农数据超预期、美国经济强劲、美联储不会降息的逻辑。每当节奏对了，每当你发现身边所有相关的和不相关的人都开始讨论一件事情时，我就知道他在这件事情上错了，而且一定错得离谱

女士们先生们，如果您是白宫，您是世界公认的预期管理最好的美联储，那么今天一个普通的中国网友，一个每天靠哭喊吸引眼球的基金博主，一个没学过一天CFA的金融菜鸟，一个连华尔街的咖啡机能冲多少盎司咖啡都不知道的中国人，都开始清晰地分享自己的观点。在分析你的逻辑时，只有一种可能，那就是这个逻辑推导出来的结果是你想让他们相信的，但至于这个结果是否是事实，只有路西法知道。但其实我们说，稍微专业一点的人，应该早就开始怀疑他了吧？他被怀疑至少一年半了。美国宏观经济数据与实际情况的逻辑矛盾，美国经济政策与经济原则的全方位心理混乱，我们不得不从一开始的反思和沉默，然后开始窃窃私语并确认彼此。后来皇帝的新装，你看他演戏，现在基本上已经完全回归理性了。你们经济强大，靠发债怎么活？你的就业真好，怎么到处都是乞丐？运营成本如此之高，实体经济如何发展？如果你的制造业真的回归了，通胀怎么可能不下来呢？苏格拉底无法解释。

What is the true scientific spirit? It means that you eliminate all the impossibilities and the remaining impossibilities must be the truth. There are no unexplainable supernatural events in this world. If there is, it must be because a person is unwilling to believe it. There is nothing wrong with the principles of economics. It is you Americans who are confused. If you must say that there is nothing wrong with your non-farm data, then there is only one possibility, that is, your non-farm employment data does not reflect the strong momentum of your economic development. Your non-farm employment reflects that Americans who are still willing and able to find jobs are trying their best to work and work hard to cope with the rising prices that you can't control. However, your inflation is not something that can be dealt with by raising interest rates. Your inflation is caused by the global industrial chain being split by you. He is still unwilling to admit this. Look at his non-farm employment data, there were 300,000 new jobs, of which healthcare accounted for 70,000 4/1, government departments accounted for 70,000 4/1, leisure and hotels accounted for 50,000, and construction accounted for 40,000. What about your manufacturing industry?Where is your technology? What have you added?

Let's put it in a more unpleasant way, in a way that Chinese people can understand. The American people are forced to work hard, and they have started to take the civil service exam, drive Didi to deliver food, and work as caregivers. My economy is so hot, and then you say that since everyone is working so hard, I plan not to cut interest rates, and raise interest rates to add a code to everyone? Isn't that what you mean? Right? I can't see the future of his economy. I only see that his purpose is not to cut interest rates, and an American government that has abandoned the interests of its own people.

热点：数据 美国