BTC Halving: Is the Fall Sufficient?

Has BTC fallen enough before the halving? The key question analysts are asking.

The opinion of the famous trader and blogger Rekt Capital (434.2 thousand subscribers in X) - no. For the fourth day now, he has been writing that the#BTCrate is in the “danger zone”, where corrections have historically occurred before halvings. There is a correction, but it is not as strong as in the past:

“Historically, BTC has performed pre-halving pullbacks 14-28 days before the halving.

In 2020, this rollback was -20% deep.

In 2016, the depth of this rollback was -40%.

Currently, $BTC is approximately 26 days away from the halving and has generally pulled back almost -18% from last week...”

Measurements based on corrections from other authors, subjectively more correct:

- in 2012 -50%,

- in 2016 -30%,

- in 2020 -60% (during the “black swan” of a planetary scale in the form of Covid-19, when even oil futures cost 0).

How correct is it to expect a larger correction before halving in the new cycle than has already happened? There is not much historical data for conclusions (only a few cycles), but the liquidity of the asset has increased since previous cycles. And demand has grown, including thanks to institutions. Therefore, expecting a clear correction percentage from an asset simply because halving is ahead is debatable.

But let us repeat our opinion:

- Probably before or after the halving, but a strong dump on the asset is still to come.

- This dump should be strong and sharp in order to remove “extra passengers” with futures up to x2 from the game before the bullrun.

What could be the reason for such a dump? The optimal topic is something related to Bitcoin ETF as the main growth driver. For example, FUD around #Coinbase, on which the work of all product issuers is based. This possible dump is potentially the last best buy before the bullrun.

$BTC

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