比特币价格暴跌至 60,800 美元：最糟糕的时期已经过去了吗？专家参与

比特币经历了从 3 月 14 日超过 73,600 美元的高点急剧下跌至今天低于 60,800 美元的低点，价值损失了 -17%。

这种大幅下跌引发了社交媒体平台上的一系列活动，尤其是 X（以前称为 Twitter），加密货币专家一直在热情讨论这种低迷背后的潜在原因，并猜测世界领先加密货币的未来。

解读比特币崩盘：专家观点

Alex Krüger 是宏观经济学和加密领域受人尊敬的人物，他很快就确定了导致比特币价格暴跌的主要因素。

Krüger 表示，此次暴跌可归因于几个关键因素：市场杠杆率过高、以太坊因 ETF 投机而对整体市场情绪产生负面影响、比特币 ETF 流入量显着减少，以及围绕 Solana memecoin 的非理性繁荣。被轻蔑地称为“垃圾币狂热”。

崩溃原因（按重要性排序）

（对于那些有需要的人）

— 亚历克斯·克鲁格 (@krugermacro) 2024 年 3 月 20 日

加密货币领域另一个有影响力的声音 WhalePanda 指出 ETF 资金流出速度惊人，昨天流出市场的资金达到创纪录的 3.26 亿美元。

这一走势对 GBTC 尤其不利，该公司的资金外流达 4.435 亿美元。

相比之下，贝莱德的资金流入仅为 7520 万美元，创下迄今为止的第二低水平。

此外，富达 (Fidelity) 的资金流入仅为 3,960 万美元。

“没什么好说的，这对价格不利，我们现在可能会看到更低的价格，因为这个消息也会影响市场情绪。

让我们看看明天的流量是多少。

积极的事情是，距离减半还有大约 30 天，GBTC 正在受到影响，”他评论道。

昨天的 ETF 流量由 @FarsideUK 提供。

我们有 3.26 亿美元的资金流出。

迄今为止最大的资金流出。

贝莱德并没有将我们从 $GBTC 的手中拯救出来，这在价格走势中是显而易见的。$GBTC 有 4.435 亿美元的流出，贝莱德有 7520 万美元的流入，这是他们第二低的...... pic.twitter.com/hIingoYMly

- WhalePanda (@WhalePanda) 2024 年 3 月 20 日

加密货币对冲基金 Capriole Investments 的创始人 Charles Edwards 对比特币近期价格走势提供了历史视角，表明 20% 至 30% 的回调属于比特币牛市的正常情况。

“A normal Bitcoin bullrun pullback is 30%. Back in December, we were already in the longest winning streak in Bitcoin’s history. A 20% pullback here takes us to $59K. A 30% pullback would be $51K. These are all levels we should be comfortable expecting as possibilities,” he stated.

Rekt Capital provided an analysis of Bitcoin’s price retracements since the 2022 bear market bottom, noting that the current pullback is only the fifth major retrace, with all previous ones exceeding a -20% depth and lasting from 14 to 63 days. In sum, there are two key takeaways about this current retracement

The closer Bitcoin gets to a -20% retrace, the better the opportunity becomes.

Retraces need time to fully mature (at least 2-3 weeks, at most 2-months).

#BTC

Since the November 2022 Bear Market Bottom…

Bitcoin has experienced the following retraces:

• -23% (February 2023) lasting 21 days

• -21% (April/May 2023) lasting 63 days

• -22% (July/September 2023) lasting 63 days

• -21% (January 2023) lasting 14 days

This… pic.twitter.com/cQyQOLA5Zv

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) March 19, 2024

Alex Thorn, head of research at crypto giant Galaxy Digital had previously warned of the likelihood of significant corrections during bull markets, suggesting that the current retrace is relatively standard. “Two weeks ago i warned that big corrections aren’t just possible but *likely* in Bitcoin bull markets. At -15%, this is pretty standard historically. Bull markets climb a wall of worry.”

Macro analyst Ted (@tedtalksmacro) focused specifically on the implications of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. He highlighted the massive outflows from spot BTC ETFs, attributing them to traders’ cautious stance ahead of the FOMC decision and the potential impact of tax season in the US.

However, following the drop to $60,800, Ted suggested that the market might have fully priced in the worst-case scenario, hinting at a potential bullish reversal if the FOMC’s decisions align with market expectations for interest rate cuts by the end of the year. He stated:

Time to bid. FOMC hedging done, worst case priced. Only thing that happens from here is that those protective positions unwind into or on the event today. Bulls should step up here soon. […] The market has fully priced in another hold from the Fed at today’s meeting, and is pricing 3 rate cuts from them by the end of the year. Anything that strays away from this from today’s new economic projection / dot plot material will make the market move sharply.

At press time, BTC traded at $62,979.

Bitcoin price, 4-hour chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com

免责声明：本文仅供教育目的。

不代表NewsBTC对于是否购买、出售或持有任何投资的意见，投资自然有风险。

建议您在做出任何投资决定之前进行自己的研究。

使用本网站提供的信息的风险完全由您自行承担。

来源：NewsBTC.com

比特币价格暴跌至 60,800 美元后：最糟糕的时期已经过去了吗？

专家的权衡首先出现在《加密突发新闻》上。

热点：币价格 比特币 比特币价格 特币