Why do more than 90% of people in the crypto marke

When I was reading the comments in the background yesterday, I found a rather interesting message asking: Why have you posted so few articles about your project recently, and I found that the frequency of updates has also become lower. Now you publish one article every two days, because you are busy making money. ?

I think I can reply to this message publicly, just to briefly talk about some of my current thoughts:

First, in terms of quantity, there are not too many published. Taking the past February as an example, Hua Li Hua Wai published a total of 18 articles (one of which was deleted). These articles also mentioned It has received at least 60 projects including Berachain, Merlin, Pandora, Ronin, Starknet, etc.

Secondly, most of the projects that I can and want to talk about were actually shared last year (2023). If we count them by quantity, none of the projects mentioned in Li Huawai’s article last year were Thousands, estimated to be 800, among which there are at least dozens of key projects.

Third, writing articles is mainly driven by personal interests and hobbies, but this hobby is also mainly limited by personal time and energy. When energy allows, I also hope to be able to publish two articles a day, but at this stage I only have enough energy to publish an article in two days.

Fourth, because it is a bull market now, I also find that more and more people are busy looking for new wealth codes and making money through various channels. But for myself, I have already accumulated a lot of money in this cycle. My personal expectation is to realize a 3-5 times profit before the pie reaches a low of 25 years, so I will definitely not be in a hurry. I will follow the established plan and wait until the pie reaches 120,000 before I think about it. It’s about making money (selling in batches). In addition, although the current official account of Hua Li Huawai can also bring me some additional income, such as advertising income (the advertisements in the article are automatically generated by the background of the official account, I do not accept any advertising or commercial sponsorship) , WeChat payment (there is a certain threshold for joining the mutual aid exchange group), but this is an additional or ancillary income of self-media. This is actually only a small part, and it will definitely not be calculated into my income list. .

In fact, I can understand many things. For example, when people read Li Huawai’s articles (including other self-media), some people do so for the purpose of learning and hope to gain further knowledge or understanding in this field. Others (Probably most people) do it for the purpose of making money, hoping to find some "wealth passwords" in the article, and hope to use this to achieve rapid accumulation of personal wealth within a period of time. But to be honest, can you make money just by "reading" articles?

Almost all financial markets have cyclical patterns, and the crypto market is certainly no exception. However, in each crypto cycle, it seems that only a few people can make profits, while most people lose money. What is the core reason here?

In fact, to put it bluntly, I think it may still be a question of investment psychology.

In each cycle, more than 90% of people will not buy at the beginning of the bull market. They may think that it is too late to buy now, but as the market continues to rise and the rapid rise in the later period, many people They will buy at ATH due to FOMO sentiment, and choose to cut and sell during the new decline, because they will think that the rise has ended. And so on.

In this intertwined process of investment and psychology, losing money becomes the final result for most people. Although there are some veteran leeks (such as Hua Li Huawai) who have been exporting some of their understanding, knowledge, experience, suggestions and precautions in this field for a long time in the past, there are still many people who will fall into this trap. In the cycle of money. Because for most people, learning is often a painful journey, and in the process of trading, human greed and insufficiency often defeat rationality and discipline.

But to overcome this situation, I can think of roughly two ways:

First, in the process of continuous failure and learning and improvement, by improving one's own cognition, try to avoid the above problems in future cycles.

The second is that there is an old leek who will take you directly and help you plan better, and then carefully watch all your operations every day.

But the reality is that the first type still requires time to accumulate, so many old leeks who can make money are basically people who have experienced 1-2 cycles. Here we first throw away the element of luck and specialness. The composition of the background, lest some cutie comes to give me a hard time.

The second is a shortcut, but I still say the same old saying, don’t easily trust the so-called order teachers and XX analysts in this field. Many so-called “teachers” who are good to you in this field are essentially trying to trick you. The little money in it, whether it is various social media or major community groups, is almost full of people with various purposes. Although I also hope that this circle can be as free, equal, fair and rule of law as our real society. , but many places in this field are still in a gray area.

Especially for newcomers, investing requires self-learning, improvement and self-responsibility first. You cannot directly base your dream of getting rich on others (especially strangers). If you just ask a certain teacher casually, Which coin to buy, a certain teacher can selflessly tell you a ten-fold or a hundred-fold coin based on the so-called professional analysis, and then you can achieve dozens of times of income, freedom of wealth, or a leap in class. This is probably not even in TV series. You know how to shoot like this!

Of course, we can take a step back and say that if a person claims to have a so-called unique secret book that can accurately judge the trend of the crypto market and can make a fortune by trading casually, then he can just cover his head and make a fortune by himself. Spend so much thought, time and energy doing nothing with a burden like you?

Or let’s put it simply, we are now in the bull market stage. If we look at the percentage progress bar, we may be at the position of 40% - 50% progress bar (personal guess). For example, you last year (2023) With your eyes closed, you can buy a few of the potential projects highlighted in Li Huawai's article at any time. If you can successfully get them now, you can basically make money now. Therefore, under the cyclical trend of a market (taking advantage of the big cycle), the so-called teacher claims to make money with you, and I believe this. But if you want to say that this teacher relies on his so-called unique secrets to help you make money, then I don’t want to say anything more. I can only wish you good luck forever.

Investment is actually a very serious and rigorous matter. If you want to do it for a long time, you need to formulate methods and strategies that are unique and suitable for you. In this field, different old leeks basically have their own methods, such as (taking secondary market spot trading as an example):

The first category: DCA group, which is the fixed investment group. The investment strategies of such old leeks are generally relatively stable. For example, they will insist on investing in big pie or ether during the bear market, and they basically don't care about short-term price fluctuations. Their core strategy is to insist on fixed investment in the bear market, and then wait patiently to sell in batches in the bull market, making money in the cycle (essentially the money given by the new leek).

The second category: K-line group, which relies on K-line to make investment decisions. These old leeks are basically masters of drawing lines, and some even call themselves analysts. They draw 666 with various horizontal and vertical lines, triangles, wedges, rectangles, flags, diamonds, etc. Through these drawing methods, they can "accurately" judge the next rise and fall, and even tell you exactly where it can rise and fall. Of course, anything (including K-lines and various data indicators) has its own rationality and logic as long as it exists. I am not saying that drawing K-lines is not good. I personally also look at K-lines. But as far as investment is concerned, I still think that K-line can be used as one of the auxiliary references. It seems a bit irresponsible to simply use this kind of thing to guide others' transactions, or even to guide others for a fee. Of course, there is no such thing as responsibility in this field. It’s just a matter of fighting and suffering.

The third category: investment research group, that is, if they decide to buy a certain target, they will definitely do some more detailed research on the target, including news, fundamentals, team, token economics, financing situation, and competitors. Dimensions such as situation, data situation, etc., of course, will also refer to K-line indicators at the same time. Such old leeks generally have strong learning ability, and most of them are long-term investors or value investors.

But no matter what method or strategy it is, the core of making money in this field still needs to return to the investment psychology issues we mentioned at the beginning of this article.

If you put it in simpler vernacular, it is: you need to overcome FOMO.

Of course, I said this while standing (it doesn’t hurt my back to speak while standing). Overcoming FOMO is easy to say, but it is very challenging to actually implement it. Even for me, I don’t know how to do it now. I dare to say that I have been able to overcome this mentality.

But as far as my personal experience and understanding is concerned, I feel that in this field, if you can overcome the above mentality, then you (most people) only need 2-3 cycles of opportunities: in the first Learn in one bull market, profit in the second bull market, and retire in the third bull market.

And if you have gone through 2-3 cycles but are still stuck in the same place, then I can only say that this is no longer a problem with the market, because the market has indeed given you many opportunities, but you have not yet completely Overcome the mentality mentioned above. And if you have just entered this field, I hope this article can give you a little inspiration.

I remember that in Hua Li Huawai’s previous article, we actually mentioned that in a bear market, you can spend more time and energy calming down to study, but during a bull market, you may need to temporarily change your thinking, that is, change your learning thinking into Develop an investment mindset. Because during the bull market, sentiment in the entire crypto market is high, and most traders no longer pay too much attention to market fundamentals. At this time, the market trend seems to have become a reflection of the psychology of the crowd (group).

Under this market sentiment, if you are a new trader entering this field, then today I will continue to give you some summary suggestions (for reference only):

1. Buy when others are afraid

Because everyone’s psychological endurance, risk management capabilities, etc. are different. If you are a new trader in this field, then my suggestion is that you can consider buying before the project receives widespread attention, and you can consider selling when the project is growing rapidly, that is, when others are afraid. , we buy, and when others start getting greedy and overexcited, we sell.

Take the pie as an example. Although the current price of the pie has risen to about 66,000 (March 7), if we calculate based on the expected price of 120,000, there is still room for about 1.8 times the profit in the next 1-2 years. , so if the market falls next, the more it falls, the more fearful others are. At this time, just buy (distribute buying, no stud). Of course, here we only take the big pie as an example. As for those rubbish coins, this strategy may not be suitable.

2. Buy when there is a shock at the bottom

Many times, many projects will experience a relatively long period of bottom range oscillation. This period is also the most depressed stage for the project's tokens and the most disappointing stage for investors. But in fact, if it is a project that has been maintaining development and Keep innovative projects, this stage is also your best buying opportunity.

Let’s take ATOM as an example. In an article last year about the Cosmos ecology, we also mentioned some aspects of the project, and we were also optimistic about the development expectations of the project ecology in 2024. As shown below.

And from a price point of view, ATOM also experienced a relatively long bottom shock at that time. As shown below. Therefore, if you had expectations for the current bull market and were optimistic about the future development of the Cosmos ecosystem, you could buy (buy in batches) anywhere in that range and hold on.

In the same way, even if it has entered a bull market, if it is those excellent projects that you are optimistic about (except for local dogs), even if it is currently at a relatively high position and is trading sideways, then if you look back at the bull market, the current position Maybe it's a relatively low shock range (because you have missed the previous lower bottom area)?

3. Strictly observe discipline

In the previous articles of Hua Li Huawai, we have mentioned the issues of position management and investment discipline many times. Many times, when a person fails to make money, it is not because he did not buy the right target, but because he did not strictly abide by his own trading strategy and trading rules.

Here is another short-term example. I remember that in January, I shared an article on the topic of fan tokens. The article was mainly based on expectations for the European Cup in June this year and listed some related currencies. And I also bought some Chiliz (CHZ) at that time, because it was a short-term operation (in fact, I can’t do short-term transactions a few times a year now). The buying price at that time was about 0.09, and the take-profit line was set at 0.14. , but I personally did not set a stop loss line, and I made a plan to clear it before June regardless of whether I can stop the profit. I strictly enforced my discipline a few days ago and reduced my position when the price was around 0.14. Although CHZ rose to 0.16 not long after, it had nothing to do with me because I had completed my operation according to discipline.

Due to the fluctuations in the market, CHZ quickly fell back to around 0.13. This is not the point. What I didn’t expect is that I suddenly received a message from a friend that day, saying that he also bought CHZ at that time. In the past few days, I have been watching the market. I didn’t sell when it was 0.16. I felt it could still go up, but now it keeps falling. I don’t know if I should sell. If I sell now, I can actually make some money. If I don’t sell, I’m afraid it will continue to fall, so I’m worried. Tangled and asked me what to do.

So I asked him: When you bought it, were you based on long-term goals or short-term goals? If it was long-term, what was the take-profit target you set? If it was short-term, what were the stop-loss and take-profit targets?

He replied: He didn’t know and had no plans. He just bought it after reading the article.

Then I asked him again: Do you know this CHZ?

He replied: I didn’t know about it before. I only found out about such a project after reading the article.

At this point, the issue is actually relatively clear. Here you might as well try to summarize the main problems of this partner, right?

Finally, I left a message and told him two points: First, any article (including Hua Li’s articles) should not be the only reference standard for investment. Investment is a serious matter. If you decide to invest in a project, At least you need to do some further investigation and comprehensive understanding of the project from your own perspective. Second, the expectations for the European Cup are still there at this stage, so there is no rush to sell them these days, because your cost is about 0.09, and you can continue to hold them. If it is a short-term transaction, you need to set a stop limit for yourself now. Profit target and stop loss target, but don't be too greedy, as long as you reduce your position before June.

4. Four steps to quickly find potential projects

Yesterday, when I was reading the comments in the background of the public account, I also found another more "interesting" message saying: After reading many articles you wrote, I seem to understand some of the principles, but I don't have time to think too much, and I don't have time to think too much. I don’t have time to do any research or investment research, and I won’t ask you specifically what coins you can buy. Do you have any faster and more direct methods or ways to find potential coins?

In fact, I didn’t want to answer this question originally. First, if you have really read many of Hua Li Huawai’s articles, you should also be able to find that in fact, I have tried to sort out many of the articles in the previous methodology series columns. The topic also lists many specific tools and methods for finding potential projects. Second, this question fits the theme of today’s article. Investment is not about betting big or small. Any investment is actually a serious matter. Before you decide to take a shortcut, you should be aware of the risks involved in it in advance. Management, the more so-called shortcuts, the greater the risks you may face.

But since some people always have this preference (it seems that many people do), then I will continue to briefly review a few methods for you to quickly find potential projects (except for local dogs).

The first step is to enter the CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko platform and use the Categories classification list to discover the currently popular narrative tracks, such as AI, DePin, RWA, GameFi, L2, Meme, etc. If you are relatively stable, you can focus on the top projects in the corresponding track. If you have a high risk tolerance, you can also focus on some of the low market value projects.

The second step is to add all the alternative projects you are interested in to the watch list. On the CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko platform, you can see the basic information of the project, such as market value, issuance, circulation, trading pairs, introduction, etc. After you have a basic understanding of the project you chose, you can then use a platform like CryptoRank or Crypto-Fundraising to check the financing status of the project. If a project has received VC investment, then at least it has been recognized by capital and the relative risk will be smaller.

The third step is to understand the project through the above steps. The purpose is actually to buy "coins", so next we can continue to use platforms like Dropstab to check the project's token economics, unlocking schedule and briefly analyze its Selling pressure. Generally speaking, the tokens of mainstream projects have relatively large short-term fluctuations before, during, and after being unlocked.

The fourth step is to continue to understand the community situation of the project. This may be a part that many people tend to overlook, but in fact I think it is a more important part. 80% of the growth of each project may come from its Strong community. Just join the community directly through the corresponding entrance provided by its official website, such as Twitter (X), Dc channel, etc.

Alternatively, you can use some of the social platform analysis tools mentioned in our previous articles to assist in the analysis, such as alphascan, lunarcrush, twitterscore, tweetscout and other platforms.

But an extra reminder here is that understanding comes with understanding, but don’t “fall in love” with a project easily, otherwise you may get stuck deeper and deeper. Of course, the discussion here still does not include Tugou. Probably 99% of Tugou’s growth depends on the community. To put it bluntly, it is all kinds of CX based on the community. You just need to be more discerning about this. 99.9% of Tugou The final outcome is zero.

Finally, let me reiterate the investment principles we have mentioned many times in previous articles. For newcomers, you must remember two things when investing in this field: first, keep your principal, and second, don’t touch if you don’t understand.

Okay, we will share the content of this issue here for the time being. This is also the 422nd article updated by Hua Li Huawai. We will continue to bring you more related sharing later. Interested friends can contact us through Hua Li Hua. Check out Li Huawai to learn more.

The data sources mentioned above mainly come from CoinGecko, Crypto-Fundraising, Dropstab, and TwitterScore platforms. Friends who are interested in this can search and understand it through Google. Friends in the group can directly view the information in the communication group article. Just provide the corresponding source/citation link.

Finally, we need to remind you again that none of the projects mentioned in this article have any interest in Hua Li Huawai. Any investment behavior is risky. Please be sure to DYOR (Do Your Own Research) before making decisions.

Note: The above content is only a personal perspective and analysis. It is only used for popular science learning and communication and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is an extremely high-risk area. Please treat it rationally, increase your awareness of risk prevention, and abide by the relevant laws and regulations of the country and region where you are located!

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