研究报告：从模糊到爆炸 预期估值与空投计算 值得关注的生态系统第一梯队

作者 |

尚旋，吴硕播客主持人，前 BitMEX 分析师

本文仅代表作者个人观点，不代表吴硕的观点和立场。

本文试图从一个二级参与者的角度思考BLAST的运营策略和$BLUR的分析和空投预测的独特性，以及是否值得积极参与。

我们先来说说结论吧。

Blast是一线生态，值得关注和参与：

• 强大的捣蛋基因：从BLUR的积分体系到BLAST的跨链锁仓和开发者空投，其策略被同行广泛复制就是其成功的最大证明。

• 蛋糕很大：有强大的KOL网络和10亿美元+的资本积累

• 事实证明：BLAST 团队拥有成功的记录。

  强大的执行能力，对市场需求的出色理解，以及顶级VC的支持。

同时BLUR又是一把高性价比的一石二鸟的金铲子：

• BLUR 是以太坊 NFT 平台的绝对领导者

• OpenSea在2022年牛市的一级市场估值为133亿美元，现在BLUR的FDV仅为20亿美元

• BLUR隐含BLAST空投价值占比30%以上（质押时间敏感）

• BLUR短期内无矿工抛售压力

搅浑水的搅局者

上一个周期，因为VC的地位还很高，公链的数量还很少，所以大家都默认了割韭菜的逻辑。

在散户、项目方和生态的博弈中，散户被严重割断。

用户激励往往只存在于生态系统支持的defi挖矿中。

因蓝筹项目到来、“生态基金”出炉而绊倒的情况屡见不鲜。

现在怎么办？

Rabby 目前仅支持 140 个 EVM 链，不包括 Cosmos、BTCL2 和新的叙事重记卷，使发行硬币变得更容易。

衷心祝愿投资者和基建项目方好运。

I think BLAST is conservatively valued at $5 billion. If we refer to the current TGE ratio between mainstream and BLUR, BLAST’s initial circulation will be around 15%, with an implied MC of US$600 million, placing Blast’s market value ranking at 50–100 in the entire market. Irresponsible blind guessing, the valuation of Blast is most similar to RON, which is also an application-to-public chain ecosystem and has some similar backgrounds. The upper limit should probably be half of Arb. After all, Blast does not have the technology and L3 premium.

Currently, Blast is valued at US$3 billion on the pre-market trading platform Aevo, and the price fluctuates mainly between US$3 billion and US$10 billion.

Blast’s current price support is based on the following:

● Blast’s TVL has ranked 6th in the entire network and 2nd in L2.

● Blast has acquired 120,000 users and may become the L2 with the most daily active users.

● The probability of operational innovation and application explosion on Blast is high.

TVL

Blast's TVL currently stands at $1.3 billion, second only to Solana and 50% more than both Polygon and Avalanche. This ranks 6th among the current smart contract platforms. Although it may not be meaningful to define market value by TVL, this level of TVL will support the market value to a certain extent.

Also being warmed up with Blast cross-chain points is the launch of the test network on Blast and related ecological projects and the anticipation of airdrop incentives. Let’s take a look at some of the more interesting and popular new projects and tipping points we’ve seen so far:

● NFT projects come to Blast to issue coins

Since a large portion of Blast’s beneficiaries are old players in the NFT community, the support and relevance of NFT on Blast should be very high. I look forward to the linkage between NFT projects/communities and Blast.

ByWassies is an OG NFT project on Ethereum, with a floor price of 0.9eth. It is relatively well-known among degens in the Ethereum community. It focuses on crypto native culture. It has been confirmed that it will issue coins on blast and will issue tokens to blast/friendtech users. airdrop.

● Best places in Gamblefi

Blast’s emphasis on gamification, its huge KOL matrix, and its native yield design all make Blast the best growing soil for gambling projects.

Among them, Fantasy.top is a project that has received widespread discussion and praise in the testnet stage. It cleverly combines Sorare and Friend.tech. Players can increase the influence of KOLs by buying KOL cards. Thereby making profits, the gameplay is similar to fantasy sport. This project has touched the pain points of many players and added another innovation to the way of speculation.

In addition, Blur's native revenue can support lossless gambling/new creation. In the last cycle, Luna also tried to build a launchpad through UST's 20% revenue, and the effect was not bad.

● High volatility violent (profit) opportunities

Due to Blast’s participation and KOL lineup, and the TVL is large enough, there will definitely be many hot new opportunities on Blast, such as Thurster, which focuses on fair launch, has announced several cooperative coin issuance project parties, and has a strong lineup of backers , including Loomdart, CBB, DCFgod, Not3Lau, etc.

Risk points of Blast: (cannot be ignored)

● Blast’s cross-chain bridge risk is the multi-signature wallet.

● The risk of rugs on Blast may be higher, because projects that receive airdrops may be more short-sighted and run away after cheating the airdrop.

● If Blast’s pie cannot be enlarged through innovative applications, the currency price will inevitably go south like BLUR due to too much selling pressure and no new players will enter the market.

The implied airdrop value in BLUR

It is difficult to accurately calculate BLUR’s staking rewards because airdrop staking. Blur’s airdrop rewards largely depend on the time of staking. The longer the time, the higher the multiplier of points. The staking length of other stakers needs to be considered. Therefore, the following is a simple estimate without taking into account multiples, and is only used to determine the price support of BLUR in anticipation of the airdrop given to BLAST.

0.3 will be a strong support for BLUR’s currency price, because the hidden value in Blast can basically cover the cost of Blur. At the same time, we see that the current currency price of 0.6 is relatively reasonable. If the activity of NFT continues to decline, 0.6–0.7 will also be a great hedging resistance for BLUR.

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