[喜悦]为什么今天比特币价格波动较大？

比特币 (BTC) 的价格走势和 47,000 美元水平的频繁波动反映了交易者在 1 月 9 日的犹豫不决。虽然市场受益于现货 BTC ETF 批准的预期，但也有交易者预计该事件是买入谣言，推销新闻式事件。

今天我们来看看比特币价格波动的原因。

现货BTC ETF势头提振市场情绪

尽管存在一系列宏观阻力，但比特币价格继续走高，波动性和未平仓合约增加。

1 月 8 日，所有现货比特币 ETF 申请人正式提交了该流程的最后一步。

现在，美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 可以自由地批准现货比特币 ETF。

前 SEC 主席杰伊·克莱顿 (Jay Clayton) 指出，随着 1 月 9 日大量修订后的 S-1 法案陆续通过，SEC 已经没有什么可以决定的了，预计会获得批准。

尽管一些分析师认为比特币价格有望突破 50,000 美元，但 BTC 的回报率已是 2023 年黄金回报率的两倍多，并且这一势头将在 2024 年持续下去。MicroStrategy 首席执行官兼比特币看涨者 Michael Saylor 认为，现货比特币 ETF 将是最大的选择。自标准普尔 500 指数推出以来，所有金融领域都发生过这种情况。

围绕比特币的积极情绪导致比特币市值于 2023 年 12 月 5 日超过伯克希尔哈撒韦公司，按此标准计算，比特币仍然是第十大资产。

尽管 BTC 表现强劲，但 SEC 仍继续谨慎行事，并于 1 月 6 日重新发布了加密货币 FOMO 警告。1 月 8 日，SEC 再次发布了有关加密货币的警告，尽管批准似乎即将到来。

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据报道，获得批准可能会产生 6000 亿美元的新需求。

CryptoQuant 分析师认为，ETF 的批准将导致比特币市值增加 1 万亿美元。

Galaxy Digital 预测现货 BTC ETF 推出后第一年价格将上涨 74%。

即使是传统银行似乎也看好比特币价格，渣打银行预计到 2025 年底每比特币价格将达到 20 万美元。

The final filings required by the spot Bitcoin ETF applicants have highlighted a potential “fee war” emerging, with the institutions all trying to be the lowest. The lowest filed fee sits at 0.2% on Jan. 8.

The fee wars have led to Bitcoin futures open interest on CME reaching new all-time highs. On Jan. 9, there was over $6.28 billion in open interest.

BTC CME Futures open interest has made a new all time high w/ +$0.85B added in the last 4 days.Open interest now stands at $6.23B going into spot ETF approvals tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/FV5tAjAqUf

— McKenna (@Crypto_McKenna) January 9, 2024

Bitcoin dominated 2023 institutional investor inflows

While some investors may be awaiting increased liquidity and clarity from a spot ETF approval, institutional investors have already begun deploying funds to Bitcoin and crypto. According to CoinShares, institutional investors pushed $2.25 billion into crypto in 2023, which is a 2.7 times increase over 2022. The total year institutional inflow was the 3rd largest on record.

Related: How will Ethereum price react to Bitcoin ETF approval?

Of the $2.25 billion pushed to crypto assets in 2023, over $1.93 billion has flowed to Bitcoin specifically. The total assets under management (AUM) for Bitcoin dwarfs other digital assets with $36.17 billion currently deployed.

Retail Bitcoin interest increases

Institutional investors are not the only investor cohort showing increased interest in Bitcoin. The number of Bitcoin wallets holding non-zero amounts of BTC hit an all-time high on Jan. 2. There are over 51.6 million Bitcoin wallets holding non-zero amounts.

Not only are there more Bitcoin wallets than ever before, but because of consistent month-over-month price growth, BTC’s realized cap increased. The realized cap value on Jan. 8 was $436 billion, which is only 7% shy of the all-time high.

While realized cap is up, active bitcoin supply relative to vaulted supply is down which suggests that holders have yet to release dormant coins into circulation. Vaulted supply shows a bullish trend beyond long-term holders as they are coins that have not moved at all within the BTC network.

The spike in non-zero wallets, vaulted Bitcoin supply and increased realized cap highlights strong bullish optimism.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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