[涡流]比特币ETF批准对Coinbase和MicroStrategy股票的影响

比特币 (BTC) 可能迎来历史性的一周，加密货币市场因美国批准现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 而屏息以待。

许多人认为，批准将促进下一个加密货币牛市和加密货币采用浪潮。

有希望的现货比特币 ETF 发行人名单不断增加，相关公司已于 1 月 8 日提交了最新的 S-1 表格修订案。

这是今天早上 Cointucky Derby 起跑门的视图。

我们重点关注这 11 个现货 #Bitcoin ETF 申报者。

预计这些 N/A 中的大部分将在下周内得到填补。

仍在 1 月 8 日至 10 日期间寻找潜在的批准订单。

pic.twitter.com/HYdnPuiaRx

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) 2024 年 1 月 2 日

分析师和观察人士预测，美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 最终将在 1 月 9 日或 10 日批准第一只现货比特币 ETF。彭博社高级 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 相信“有 90% 的机会”推出现货比特币 ETF将获得批准。

无论决定如何，无论是批准还是拒绝，加密货币市场无疑都会受到震动。

加密行业可能正在准备开香槟庆祝，但它的连锁反应又如何呢？

对于比特币 ETF 市场来说，贝莱德和富达等管理着数万亿美元资产的巨头的​​到来可能会改变 Coinbase 或 MicroStrategy 等公司的基本面。

两者都在公开市场上进行交易，但他们将如何应对现货比特币 ETF 的批准？

MicroStrategy 的保费可能受到负面影响

现货比特币 ETF 可能会为传统投资者进入加密货币市场打开大门，从而给 MSTR 等比特币代理带来负面压力。

自从其联合创始人、执行主席兼前首席执行官 Micheal Saylor 决定收购 BTC 作为通胀对冲和在资产负债表上持有现金的替代方案以来，MicroStrategy 一直在购买比特币。

在 2023 年 12 月 27 日的最近一次购买中，MicroStrategy 目前拥有 189,150 BTC，购买平均价格为 31,168 美元。

这家科技公司是持有 BTC 最多的上市公司，其次是加密货币挖矿公司 Marathon，持有 15,174 BTC，特斯拉则持有 10,725 BTC。

MicroStrategy 的 BTC 购买狂潮使该公司持有现有比特币总供应量的近 1%。

MicroStrategy 对比特币的广泛投资使该公司通过将其股票转换为比特币代理而处于独特的地位。

由于 MicroStrategy 在纳斯达克上市，传统投资者拥有了间接投资比特币的投资工具。

然而，如果现货比特币 ETF 获得批准，MicroStrategy 可能会面临激烈的竞争，并失去作为传统市场比特币代理的地位。

As Spencer Bogart, fundamental analyst and general partner at crypto venture capital Blockchain Capital, said in the Unchained podcast, a hypothetical approval of a spot in Bitcoin ETF is clearly “a headwind” for Saylor’s company.

According to Bogart, an approval could benefit MicroStrategy by raising its stock price due to its heavy exposure to Bitcoin. However, MicroStrategy investors should question how a spot Bitcoin ETF could affect its stock premium related to the BTC it holds.

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A premium occurs when a stock or share is issued above its par value. The premium of any stock is an abstract analysis; therefore, rates differ per analyst. A representative from the private bank, Julius Baer, told Cointelegraph that its MicroStrategy premium is 9%.

Bogart rates the actual premium of MicroStrategy at a 30% rate, meaning if an investor used it to track the price of Bitcoin, they would be paying a 30% premium.

Bogart said, “There’s got to be some significant percentage of MicroStrategy holders that are using it as their best proxy for Bitcoin exposure.”

If some investor’s sole purpose in buying MicroStrategy stock is to get the closest exposure possible to BTC without purchasing the asset itself, then a spot Bitcoin ETF approval could mean those investors decide to sell the stock in favor of an ETF. Bogart explained:

“Once a Bitcoin ETF is approved, presumably some percentage of those investors [in MicrStrategy] will switch over to the ETF product.”

Due to this shift in the traditional market, Bogart thinks that the extra value of MicroStrategy stock compared to the actual value of Bitcoin they own — otherwise known as a “premium” —might decrease.

As of April 11, 2023, MicroStrategy’s BTC holdings turned green as the price of Bitcoin increased. Even if there is selling pressure on MicroStrategy, Bogart said the tech company can still benefit from the growth of the adoption of Bitcoin.

A spot Bitcoin ETF can boost crypto adoption as the perfect crossover investment vehicle between the crypto and traditional markets. The existence of a spot Bitcoin ETF would provide an on-ramp for Wall Street capital to enter the Bitcoin ecosystem, pushing adoption in the long run and potentially translating into buying pressure for MicroStrategy stock.

Another positive factor for holding MicroStrategy instead of a spot Bitcoin ETF is that investors won’t need to pay a management fee, which, according to the latest documentation, varies between 0.24% for Bitwise and 1.5% for Grayscale. Saylor highlighted this during an interview with Bloomberg in December 2023:

“The ETFs are unlevered, and they charge a fee [...] We provide you leverage, but we don’t charge a fee. We offer a high-performance vehicle for people that are Bitcoin long investors.”

Another positive factor is that MicroStrategy is a thriving business that provides business intelligence (BI), mobile software and cloud-based services. Additionally, the company stands in a decent financial position as regards its Bitcoin investment, with an average purchase price is $31,168.

MicroStrategy’s shares have surged over 300% in 2023, outperforming Bitcoin as it rallied roughly 150% during the same period.

Coinbase: All-in as the custodian of spot Bitcoin ETF’s

American cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase has closed deals with the world’s largest asset managers, including BlackRock, VanEck and Grayscale, to serve as custodians for their proposed Bitcoin ETFs.

The competition between Grayscale, Fidelity, ARK Invest, Franklin Templeton and others will be fierce as they each compete to become the ETF with the most liquidity.

Being the first to launch on the open market is a significant breakthrough, although the different companies may attract customers by playing with their fee structure or other technicalities.

Many see BlackRock as one of the most prominent candidates, but others such as ARK Invest, Bitwise, WisdomTree or Valkyrie have prior experience with Bitcoin futures and a crypto-savvy approach.

Coinbase has gone all-in on the spot Bitcoin ETF race, positioning itself as the custodial service to trust. The exchange will gain more revenue and possibly generate more demand from other big players in the traditional investment sector as it becomes the custodian of choice for the Bitcoin held by the ETF funds.

Coinbase could successfully expand its existing model, which, in addition to gaining revenue through internal volumes, also pockets cash flows through a variety of subscriptions and services. These factors provide a solid foundation for Coinbase stock to attract investors, and in 2023, its value surged 370%, according to data from TradingView.

There are other factors that could potentially put pressure on the Coinbase stock price. The SEC currently has a pending case against Coinbase for failing to register its staking-as-a-service program. When the SEC initially announced its case against Coinbase on June 6, 2023, the stock price sank 15%.

A week of Bitcoin volatility

The BTC price is highly sensitive to the SEC’s decision to approve or reject the spot Bitcoin ETF.

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On Jan. 2, Markus Thielen, head of research for crypto platform Matrixport, said that he thinks the SEC would reject the current BTC ETF applications, as the agency believes they “fall short of a critical requirement.”

This suggestion of an SEC rejection and the reaction of the crypto community on X (formerly Twitter) was enough to tank Bitcoin’s price by 7% on Jan. 3.

The rapid price decline highlights the price volatility of Bitcoin and the many sellers waiting on the sidelines for news of the decision from the SEC.

本文不包含投资建议或建议。

每一项投资和交易行为都涉及风险，读者在做出决定时应自行研究。

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