2024 年，加密货币之夏即将到来，今年将有所不同

回顾我过去对未来的预测，很明显我的专栏代表了很多一厢情愿的想法。

就像奥斯卡·王尔德曾经说过的，除了诱惑他可以抵抗任何事情，我可以预测任何事情，只要不是关于未来的事情。

尽管我对某一年会发生什么的判断经常是错误的，但我确实认为我的一些主要预测在方向上是正确的。

我也不甘于做一个旁观者。

我正在构建区块链业务和技术，其明确目的是影响未来的道路。

这篇文章是 CoinDesk 的“Crypto 2024”预测包的一部分。

Paul Brody 是安永全球区块链负责人兼 CoinDesk 专栏作家。

我正在努力构建的未来是建立在公共以太坊生态系统之上的，具有强大的、符合监管要求的商业交易和有意义的隐私保护。

在这种开放、审查和抗垄断的模型中，我们可以构建一种通用的业务基础设施，使业务交互成为一种简单、可扩展且可靠的体验。

在未来的愿景中，金融服务很容易整合并服务于其预期目的：将资本输送到从初创企业到绿色能源项目的有用项目。

这里的道路比我想要的要慢得多，但进步是真实的。

我在这个领域工作了 10 年，其中 8 个在安永担任这个职位，我们看到企业拥抱代币化，以太坊已经成为全球标准，许可链的时尚虽然没有消亡，但正在慢慢褪色出去。

企业还接受了法定货币和加密货币，并且生态系统已在很大程度上克服了 L2 的可扩展性挑战。

我们在利用零知识工具和应用程序解决隐私挑战的道路上也取得了显着的进展。

与往常一样，大部分进展都是在加密货币冬天的黑暗时期取得的。

我们还没有走出冬天，但我希望我们离冬天不远了。

事实上，我认为从 2024 年 6 月开始在欧洲逐步实施加密资产市场 (MiCA)，这是我们迈向下一个区块链夏季之路上的一个重要里程碑。

我对即将到来的夏天有三个希望，我将其称为“预测”。

可持续夏季

首先，事实证明今年夏天更具可持续性。

虽然宏观经济变化肯定影响了之前的区块链夏季，但我相信其他问题产生了更大的影响，包括以太坊等生态系统达到其容量限制并产生高额费用、欺诈浪潮以及机构资本池的限制。

This time could be different. L2s have given Ethereum vast capacity, regulators around the world are unlocking institutional capital flows such as pension funds while simultaneously giving investors greater protections from rug-pulls and frauds. These measures are still immature and there are no financial ecosystems without fraud and risk, but in the next summer Ethereum and crypto will look and feel much closer to the rest of the financial ecosystem.

Convergence of stablecoins and CBDCs

My second prediction is that we will start to see the world's central banks start to converge upon both regulated stablecoins and Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) as the preferred approach to implementing CBDCs. This won't be a result of regulators suddenly embracing decentralization and individual control. It will just be a practical choice.

Nearly all CBDC plans today are connected to tokenized, but centralized systems ̅̅almost none of which plan for real programmability. As a result, central banks are finding that while CBDC prototypes and pilots do work, technically, their "value-add" over existing Real Time Gross Settlement systems is quite limited.

None of the ways to "fix" these shortcomings look very appealing. For central banks to build fully programmable and open systems on a par with Ethereum, seems like a monumental technical challenge and deploying a single national coin onto a public network invites potential hacking risks.

Read more: Paul Brody - Under the Hood, 2023 Was a Highly Constructive Year for Crypto

There will be some cases where public sector managed CBDCs will go ahead and have compelling value propositions. I believe these will be most gripping in countries that have not yet implemented national real-time payments (there aren't many) or those where governments want to see more intense (and low cost) competition in the consumer payments space. The global consumer payments market is highly consolidated and, in many countries like the U.S. and Canada, payment fees look remarkably high compared to low-cost leaders such as Australia.

Despite these challenges and the lack of a clear value proposition, many central banks seem determined to deploy both retail and wholesale CBDCs. I confess I don’t understand what is driving this push, but am coming to suspect that the push towards CBDCs has more to do with gaining additional power and control over the financial system, than as something that really solves a major problem.

Even with a CBDC, I believe regulated stablecoins are coming as well. CBDCs won’t “quench” the demand for blockchain-based programmable money that can be used in DeFi services or for digital asset purchases.

Industrial applications progress

最后，希望看到工业应用不断进步。

这是你能得到的最慢、最乏味的进展，但它正在发生。

企业很容易被最近的一些加密货币交易所等丑闻吓倒，但我希望，随着记忆的褪色和解决方案的改进，我们将看到采用的稳步重新加速。

我不能向你保证 2024 年夏天会到来，但春天肯定已经在空气中。

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