2024 年将是加密货币投资者对衍生品变得更加成熟的一年

在 2017 年牛市期间，首次代币发行 (ICO) 风靡一时。

上一次牛市发生在 2021 年，主要由去中心化金融 (DeFi) 和流动性挖矿的增长主导。

现在，随着新一轮牛市周期的加快，2024 年将带来一系列更复杂的金融产品上链。

从复杂的衍生品到结构性产品，大型工具和交易员将进入数字资产游乐场。

正如我们在之前的周期中看到的那样，加密生态系统往往紧密跟随传统金融（TradFi）市场。

毕竟，比特币（BTC）最初被设计为一种替代支付系统。

ICO 甚至借用了 TradFi 的首次公开募股 (IPO) 的名字，其历史可以追溯到 1783 年。

与此同时，DeFi 生态系统模仿了传统的金融服务，例如借贷和收益生成，只是以去中心化的方式进行。

因此，更复杂的金融工具最终应该进行 Web3 改造，这似乎是很自然的事情。

相关：即使在比特币现货 ETF 之后，期货也将成为城里最好的加密货币游戏

我们已经看到加密货币衍生品市场的惊人增长。

11 月份衍生品交易量环比飙升 37.3% 至 2.58 万亿美元，为 3 月份以来的最高水平，但其在整个加密市场的份额从 9 月份的 79.9% 下降至 73.3%。

与此同时，加密货币期权的未平仓合约一直创下历史新高。

每月现货交易量与每月衍生品交易量相比。

来源：CCData

除了健康的复苏，我们还看到更加复杂的衍生产品，例如去中心化永续期货交易的兴起和创新的风险管理机制。

当我们进入新的一年时，这将是创新的关键领域，同时我们还将看到模仿传统产品的新复杂产品的推出。

特别是，我们将看到加密货币领域的奇异期权、结构性产品和债务抵押债券（CDO）的增长。

我们已经看到了一些加密 CDO 的尝试——尤其是 2021 年 Opium Finance 的尝试——而加密结构产品市场正在悄然兴起。

然而，这些复杂的产品仍然只占整个加密市场的一小部分。

例如，链上结构性产品仅占加密货币总市值的0.21%，为大幅扩张提供了可能性。

提供链上结构化产品的 DeFi 协议，按时间价值锁定排名。

来源：CCDA

So what will drive interest in these innovative derivative products? I see three key drivers of this trend in 2024 and beyond. First, growing institutional interest in digital assets will naturally drive demand and innovation in this space. The traditional derivatives market holds an estimated value of 10 times the world’s total gross domestic product (GDP), with derivatives available for virtually every asset imaginable. The crypto derivatives market will see similar momentum in growth as sophisticated traders pile in.

Second, as crypto winter-induced nervousness subsides, investors will once again seek outsized returns on their digital assets. But this time, we can expect less interest in yield farming due to the high risk of hacks. Instead, attention will turn to derivatives and structured products. Often offering the potential for sky-high returns over 100% APY, these complex products offer one thing that yield farming doesn’t: downside protection. And this brings us to our last point.

After the collapse of Terra, Celsius, FTX et al. in 2022, battle-hardened investors are looking for guarantees that their assets won’t just disappear in a puff of smoke. This makes products with a degree of capital protection look attractive. Complex financial vehicles like structured products often offer capital protection, with some — like the so-called "Shark Fin" structure — even paying a guaranteed coupon.

Related: BONK, PEPE and SHIB are a menace to crypto

Structured products essentially allow investors to make an educated guess on the future direction of travel for their chosen underlying asset — in crypto, this could be Bitcoin. With a Shark Fin product, guessing correctly could result in handsome returns. But even if the guess is wrong, the investor still gets his money back and walks away with a small coupon. The only catch is that his money could be converted to the underlying asset (i.e. USDT to Bitcoin) at an unfavorable price. But this is a much less bitter pill to swallow than, say, the liquidation risk in yield farming.

This in-built protection is exactly what made structured products so popular in the traditional financial market, at least before the financial crisis decimated trust in complex investment vehicles. At launch in the 1990s, their purpose was to offer investors tailored risk-return outcomes, making them suitable for a wide array of portfolios — and they went down a treat.

随着加密货币市场的成熟以及焦点转向多元化投资组合中更可预测的回报，这些工具将再次获得阳光时刻。

在仍受 2022 年事件影响的市场中，资本保值对许多投资者来说变得更加重要，尤其是在加密货币突破主流之际。

需求总是推动创新，因此我们预计链上结构化产品领域将出现新产品，以及新的复杂衍生品项目，从而刺激这些领域资产的快速增长。

这将是当前牛市的决定性创新之一。

Lucas Kiely

本文仅供一般参考之用，无意也不应被视为法律或投资建议。

这里表达的观点、想法和意见仅属于作者个人，并不一定反映或代表Cointelegraph的观点和意见。

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