减半期间如何交易比特币？

比特币减半是加密货币领域的一个重要事件，大约每四年发生一次，减少了矿工在比特币网络上验证交易时获得的奖励。

顾名思义，比特币减半事件会将矿工挖掘将交易添加到比特币分类账的比特币区块的奖励减少一半。

该过程被硬编码到比特币协议中，以控制其供应并保持其稀缺性和有限供应状态。

比特币减半对交易者来说至关重要，因为它对比特币（BTC）、其市场供应以及更广泛的加密货币市场的价格动态产生直接影响。

本文探讨了减半期间的比特币交易策略、加密货币市场动态、价格趋势、交易信号和机会以及比特币减半期间的整体投资者行为。

什么是比特币减半？

比特币在称为节点的去中心化计算机网络上运行。

比特币挖矿是创建有效区块的过程，将交易记录添加到比特币的公共去中心化账本中。

矿工是在保护和验证比特币区块链交易方面发挥关键作用的个人或实体。

作为对他们努力的回报，矿工们将获得新创建的比特币作为奖励。

比特币挖矿使用硬件来解决复杂的数学问题，从而验证和保护网络上的交易。

矿工们利用计算能力并竞争来解决这些难题，第一个解决这个难题的人可以向区块链添加一个新的交易块。

比特币减半是指减少对解决复杂数学问题和验证比特币区块链上交易的矿工的奖励。

它是比特币创建者中本聪内置于比特币协议中的一种机制，大约每四年（或每 210,000 个区块）发生一次。

在此活动期间，成功向区块链添加新区块的矿工奖励将减少一半。

对于更广泛的加密市场来说，减半减少了进入市场的新比特币的供应。

最初，当比特币首次推出时，矿工们每向区块链添加一个区块就会收到 50 个比特币作为奖励。

第一次减半时，奖励降至25比特币，随后的2016年和2020年减半，奖励分别降至12.5和6.25比特币。

到 2024 年 4 月，它将降至 3.125 BTC，并且该过程将持续到所有 2100 万个比特币被开采完毕。

减少挖矿奖励控制了新比特币的发行，并模仿了黄金等贵金属的稀缺特征。

比特币的供应量上限为 2100 万枚，随着开采新 BTC 的难度越来越大、资源越来越密集，发行速度减慢，造成稀缺性，并可能推高每个比特币的价值。

Related: Bitcoin halving 2024: Everything you need to know

The 2024 Bitcoin halving

Although the timing of the next halving is uncertain because the Bitcoin algorithm governs the occurrence of halving events based on the creation of blocks, experts have pointed to a likely date in April 2024, aligning closely with the historical four-year cycle.

The final halving is predicted to occur in the year 2140, when the number of BTC circulating will reach its maximum supply of 21 million. At this point, no more new Bitcoin will be mined.

The Bitcoin halving is designed to be somewhat predictable to avoid causing significant disruptions to the network. Despite this, the lead-up to and aftermath of a halving often sees heightened volatility in the price of Bitcoin.

What is the historical impact of the Bitcoin halving on BTC price trends?

The price trends from historical data and fundamental analysis show that Bitcoin halvings tend to impact the price of Bitcoin favorably. The halving events typically instill optimism and a bullish trend in the cryptocurrency markets, translating into positive price movements.

The positive momentum can be attributed to various factors, primarily economic demand-supply dynamics. The decrease in Bitcoin’s supply issuance makes it more scarce, boosting demand and driving up its value.

Moreover, the halving event draws attention to the cryptocurrency space, changing investor behavior, attracting new investors and promoting fear of missing out (FOMO), bringing price predictions by influential commentators on social media and established media and higher community engagement, which often contributes to an uptick in trading activity.

The period preceding a halving frequently initiates conversations and educational campaigns regarding the foundational principles of Bitcoin, blockchain technology and the economics of cryptocurrencies.

However, while historical trends indicate a correlation between halving events and price increases, this is not guaranteed, and investors should do their own research to understand the price trends during each halving.

Consistent trends have become evident in price analysis during each Bitcoin halving. In 2016, the value of BTC stood at $665 before halving, surging to $2,250 a year later.

The halving in 2020 occurred in May when Bitcoin was priced at $8,740. By the end of that same year, BTC had soared to $29,000. Therefore, since a bullish market trend has typically followed each previous Bitcoin halving cycle, forecasts suggest the 2024 cycle will be no different.

Market volatility and trading opportunities during the Bitcoin halving

The anticipation and occurrence of a Bitcoin halving event are often accompanied by increased market volatility. This historical volatility creates both challenges and opportunities for traders. While the uncertainty may pose risks, it also opens avenues for strategic trading, especially for those adept at navigating price swings.

Traders can follow the prevailing trend in the lead-up to and after the halving, either to go long in a bullish trend or short in a bearish trend. Traders can identify key resistance or support levels to execute trades when the price breaks out of these levels.

Breakouts can help signify potential trend reversals or the continuation of an existing trend. Support levels are price levels where the Bitcoin price may stop falling, and resistance levels are where it tends to halt its upward movement.

Traders can identify these levels using technical analysis tools like trendlines, moving averages or horizontal support and resistance lines, waiting for the price to break decisively above a resistance level or below a support level. The breakout is confirmed when the price closes above or below the identified level, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment.

For example, in 2016, before the halving, Bitcoin’s price was trading at around $665. Traders observing a resistance level at $700 may have adopted a breakout strategy, and if the price broke decisively above $700, it could signal a bullish breakout.

Once the breakout is confirmed, traders may enter a long position (buy) if it is a bullish breakout or a short position (sell) if it is a bearish breakout. Stop-loss orders and take-profit levels are typically set to manage risk and secure profits.

Traders should continue to monitor the trade, adjusting their strategy as the market evolves. Breakout trades aim to capture the momentum generated by the price breaking through a significant level.

Breakout trading carries risks, and false breakouts can occur. Therefore, traders must exercise caution and do their research to filter out potential false breakouts.

Additionally, traders can explore price differentials across various crypto exchanges. Bitcoin’s volatility may create temporary pricing imbalances, and traders can capitalize on these arbitrage opportunities by buying on one exchange and selling on another.

Related: Bitcoin halving 2024 — Miners predict potential outcomes of reduced BTC rewards

Risk assessment amid the Bitcoin halving

Although the Bitcoin halving is commonly perceived as a positive occurrence, there are inherent risks, particularly in the short term. The period leading up to the halving often triggers speculative market behavior, introducing the potential for heightened volatility.

Additionally, it is crucial to recognize the possibility of a bear trend or temporary price corrections if market expectations are not aligned with the actual outcomes. Furthermore, traders must ensure that their cryptocurrency holdings are stored securely. Consider using a hardware wallet or a secure software wallet and enable two-factor authentication for added security.

市场情绪、监管发展和全球经济因素可能会影响与比特币减半相关的整体风险格局，这凸显了明智且适应性强的投资策略方法的重要性。

本文不包含投资建议或建议。

每一项投资和交易行为都涉及风险，读者在做出决定时应自行研究。

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